Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence（Fourth Edition）

著者名：Pherson, Katherine H./Pherson, Randolph H.

CQ Press（2026/01/06発売）

• 言語：ENG
• ISBN：9781071902288
• eISBN：9781071902325

Description

With Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence, Katherine Hibbs Pherson and Randolph H. Pherson have updated their highly regarded, easy-to-use handbook for developing core critical thinking skills and analytic techniques. This indispensable text is framed around 20 key questions that all analysts must ask themselves as they prepare to conduct research, generate hypotheses, evaluate sources of information, draft papers, and ultimately present analysis, including: How do I get started? Where is the information I need? What is my argument? How do I convey my message effectively? 

The Fourth Edition includes an exploration of use and implications of artificial intelligence, increased coverage of cyber issues such as digital disinformation and deepfakes, and new case studies. Drawing upon their years of teaching and analytic experience, Pherson and Pherson provide a useful introduction to skills that are essential within the intelligence community.

Table of Contents

List of Figures
Foreword
Preface
About the Authors
Introduction to the Fourth Edition
Introduction
Part I: How Do I Get Started?
Chapter 1: Who Are Your Clients?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 2: What Are the Key Questions?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 3: What Is the Broader Context for the Analysis?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 4: How Should I Conceptualize My Product?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 5: What Is My Analytic Approach?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 6: Can Collaboration Contribute to a Better Answer?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Part II: Where Is The Information I Need?
Chapter 7: How Do Models and Artificial Intelligence Help My Analysis?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 8: What Types of Information Are Available?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 9: Can I Trust the Sources?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 10: How Should I Assess the Reliability of Internet Information?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Part III: What Is My Argument?
Chapter 11: Are My Key Assumptions Well-Founded?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 12: Can I Make My Case?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 13: Did I Consider Alternative Hypotheses?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 14: How Do I Present to Policymakers?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 15: How Might I Be Spectacularly Wrong—Or on the Doorstep of an Unmitigated Success?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Part IV: How Do I Convey My Message Effectively?
Chapter 16: Is My Argument Persuasive?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 17: How Should I Portray Probability, Levels of Confidence, and Quantitative Data?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 18: How Can Graphics Support My Analysis?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 19: Am I Presenting My Message in the Most Compelling Way?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Chapter 20: How Do I Know When I Am Finished?
Setting the Stage
Looking More Deeply
Key Takeaways
Considering the Case Study
Notes
Appendix A: Definitions of Biases and Traps
Appendix B: Definitions of Intuitive Traps
Part V: Case Studies
Case Study I: Uncharted Territory in the Arctic
Case Study II: Blackout on the Eastern Seaboard!
Case Study III: The End of the Era of Aircraft Carriers?
Case Study IV: The Case of Iraq’s Aluminum Tubes
Glossary of Terms
List of Names
Recommended Readings
US Government Publications
Index