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Full Description
Cyber defence is critical to both the EU's prosperity and security. Yet, the threat space it faces is vast in scope, highly interconnected, deeply complex, and rapidly evolving. The EU's current cyber defence capacity remains fragmented across and siloed within various institutions, agencies. In order to secure its own use of cyberspace, the EU must be bold. The CEPS Task Force on Strengthening the EU's Cyber Defence Capabilities identified a clear EU-wide interest for greater coordination and cooperation in this space. After a comparative analysis of alternative scenarios, the Task Force concluded in favour of creating an EU Cyber Defence Agency with executive competencies and therefore, the ability to develop and utilise strategic and operational capabilities at the EU level. This would mark a critical step towards a more effective and collaborative approach to enhancing cyber security and resilience in the EU.
Contents
Foreword i
Preface ii
Executive Summary iii
1. Introduction 1
Part I. Cyber Threats and Cyber Defence
2. The evolving threat landscape 6
2.1 Current trends in digital security threats 6
2.1.1 The terrain in need of defence is growing 6
2.1.2 Reported vulnerabilities are rising steadily 7
2.1.3 Digital attacks proliferate 9
2.1.4 Attack strategies and modes in constant evolution 9
2.1. Trends in the weaponisation of cyberspace for strategic purposes 10
2.2 The view from the EU 12
3. Key components of cyber defence 16
3.1 Defining the scope 16
3.2 Strategies in cyber defence 19
3.2.1 Preventing an attack: classical deterrence and dissuasion 20
3.2.2 Withstanding an attack: security and resilience 25
3.3 Key operational capabilities 26
3.3.1 Detection capabilities 27
3.3.2 Attribution capabilities 27
3.3.3 Incident response capabilities 28
3.4 Concluding thoughts: threats and defence 29
Part II. The State of Play and the Case for Greater Cooperation
4. The need for a new EU-wide response 31
4.1 The advantages of coordination 31
4.1.1 Structure of cyberspace 31
4.1.2 Critical services and infrastructure 32
4.1.3 Pooling of resources 33
4.2 The case for coordination at the EU level 33
4.3 The rise of EU cyber defence policy 34
4.4 The current EU approach and ecosystem 37
4.4.1 Communities of Practice versus Policy Mechanisms 38
4.4.2 Internal versus External Security Institutionalisation 41
4.5 Limitations to the current EU cyber defence posture 42
4.5.1 An advisor, not an actor 42
4.5.2 A fragmented approach, lacking a strategic vision 43
4.5.3 Lack of resources 43
4.6 Concluding thoughts: an urgent need 44
Part III. Bolstering EU Cyber Defence
5. Three paths forward 47
5.1 Introduction 47
5.2 Building off current EU capabilities 48
5.2.1 Scenario I - The Base Case: Implementing the 2017 Cyber Security Package 48
5.2.2 Scenario II - Establishing a Cyber Defence Coordinator 51