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Full Description
The globe is warming and while no one knows what will happen as a result, it is clear that slowing the process is a necessary goal. Other studies have considered 'warming fates', this one brings sophisticated computer modeling to bear on ways of minimizing the risks.
Fossil carbon emissions, other trace gases and releases from other sources are all taken into account, and the authors demonstrate the global need to produce a budget for cumulative releases between now and the year 2100. They also demonstrate the need to return to a rate of forest carbon storage equal to that of the mid-1980s. These budgets look at issues of international equity and the ways of moving to a binding agreement. The price of failure to control GHG emissions may be uncertain, but it will be more than anyone can afford. Political will lies at the root of successful climate stabilization and major capital and technology transfers to Third World countries will be needed if there is to be any chance of success. This book provides an agenda for advance.A book [which] throws into stark relief the mountain still to be climbed before the world community can agree on a credible programme to tackle global warming. David Thomas, Financial Times Originally published in 1991
Contents
Chapter 1.1
A Target-based, Least-cost Approach to Climate Stabilization
A. Introduction
B. Growing Awareness of the Climate Threat
C. Driving Forces of Climate Change
D. Greenhouse Risks and Consequences: Just Warmer Weather?
E. Analytic Framework for the Prevention
Paradigm
Chapter 1.2
Is Climate Stabilization still Feasible?
A. Overview
B. Climate Modeling Approach
C. How Much Warming is Already Locked in from the Past?
D. What Further Warming will Future Emissions Bring?
E. From Concentration Ceilings to Policy Targets
Chapter 1.3
Control Requirements for Non-fossil Greenhouse Gases
A. Overview
B. CFC Releases and Other Urban-Industrial Emissions
C. Greenhouse Gases and Agriculture
D. Carbon Releases from Deforestation and Soil Destruction: How Significant Are they in Climate Warming?
E. Restoring Biospheric Carbon Pools in Forests and Soils
Chapter 1.4
How much Fossil Fuel can still be Burned?
A. Overview
B. Concentration Limit for Carbon Dioxide
C. Fossil Reserves, Energy Content, Carbon Content, and Airborne Fraction
D. Global Fossil Carbon Budget
Chapter 1.5
How could the Global Carbon Budget be Shared?
A. Climate Change and Global Equity
B. How Could Equity Goals Be Quantified?
C. Fossil Carbon Emissions and Interregional Equity: The Record to Date
D. Equity-based Allocation of the Global Carbon Budget
E. Person-year Equity and Compensatory International Assistance
Chapter 1.6
How Quickly must Fossil Fuels be Phased Out?
Global and Regional Milestones
A. Introduction
B. What Rates of Fossil Phase-out Could Be Viable?
C. Milestones for the Global Fossil Phase-out
D. Are There Any Other Options?
E. C/GDP Ratios: Historic versus Required Future Changes
F. Summary and Conclusions
Chapter 1.7
A Global Compact on Climate Stabilization and Sustainable Development
A. Climate Stabilization and Sustainable Development
B. International Protocols versus Leadership by Example
C. The Climate Convention
D. Fossil Fuel Protocol
E. Protocol on Reforestation and Agricultural Land-Use
F. Protocol on Chlorofluorocarbons
G. Protocol on Other Trace Gases
H. Conclusion
APPENDIX 1.1
APPENDIX 1.2
