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Full Description
In today's data-driven world, this book offers clear, accessible guidance on the logical foundations of optimal decision making. It introduces essential tools for decision analysis and explores psychological theories that explain how people make decisions in both professional and personal contexts. Using real-world examples, the book covers topics such as decision making under uncertainty, decision trees, strategies of risk management, decisions that are gambles, heuristics, trade-offs, decision making under stress, game theory, decision making in a dispute or conflict, and multi-attribute decision analysis. Readers will identify common decision traps and learn how to avoid them, understand the causes of indecisiveness and find out how to deal with it, gain insights into their own decision-making processes, and build confidence in their ability to make and defend informed decisions across a range of scenarios.
Contents
List of figures; List of tables; Preface; Acknowledgements; Section I. Analytics: Probability, Evaluation, Decision Trees, and Strategies for Decision Making; 1. Introduction to decision theory and decision making; 2. Thinking like a gambler: for all the gambles of life; 3. Using decision trees to see through the forest ahead; 4. Strategies for decision making in an environment of risk: how to get the most and avoid the worst, no matter what; Section II. Cognitive Processes of Decision Making; 5. Heuristics: assumptions and quick rules of thumb we all use - but maybe shouldn't; 6. Prospect theory: psychological aspects beyond expected value; 7. Two systems: a descriptive model that explains how people make decisions; 8. Decisions are made based on our memories, but how reliable are our memories?; 9. Psychology + economics = behavioral economics = ways to (gently) influence decisions; Section III. Applications, Examples, and Selected Topics; 10. Signal detection theory: how to detect the important signal against the distracting background and take action; 11. Game theory as applied to real-world decisions; 12. Decision making under stress: staying ahead of rapidly changing events and making difficult, time-critical decisions; 13. Decision making involving disputes, negotiation, and conflict; 14. Multi-attribute utility decisions: making complex and multidimensional decisions; 15. Common decision traps and how to avoid them; 16. Overcoming indecisiveness by understanding what causes it; 17. Looking back and looking ahead: what about emotion, culture, artificial intelligence, and intuition?; Bibliography; Index.
