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In the coming year, Congress is likely to face a critical vote on granting Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) to Russia in connection with its impending membership to the World Trade Organization (WTO). A "yes" on PNTR for Russia could set the tone for economic relations between the United States and Russia for the next decade, and would give the global agenda of trade and investment liberalization a fresh boost, as Russia is the last major economy to join the WTO. Congressional failure to permanently normalize trade relations would likely have broad consequences, since it would send a clear message of US skepticism that the WTO is a suitable forum for handling commercial relations between major powers. This study presents an analysis of the current US-Russia economic relations, provides estimates on the potential increase in US exports to Russia, and potential growth of two-way trade within the WTO framework. Drawing on conclusions from this analysis, and from previous work conducted by the Institute on US-Russia relations, this monograph summarizes the implications of PNTR for US producers, Russian economic growth, and bilateral commercial relations.
