Full Description
It's practical. It's easy-to-use. It works. SCENARIO PLANNING HANDBOOKtechniques available to help you, a decision-maker, plan for the future. And with this strategy textbook, you won't just get theory. You'll also get the most up-to-date data, analysis, and expert insights that show you how to succeed. Don't let uncertainty paralyze you or force a bad decision. Let you using the decision-making practices that are proven to work.
Contents
Part 1Chapter 1: Why Bother?The extent of uncertainty-and the dilemma it poses: focus or flexibility? The need for foresight-but the dangers of (single-point) forecasting. Scenarios as an escape from the dilemma-what they are, and are not. The benefits of scenario-based planning and action.Part 2: INITIAL STEPS.Chapter 2: Preparing the Way.Assessing the current planning culture. Understanding scenarios: what they are-what they require how they can be used. Designing the effort and approach to fit the need (e.g., the decision(s) to be supported; the information and resources needed; time available; etc.. Defining realistic expectations. Getting top management''s support.Chapter 3: Getting Started.Assigning responsibilities. Forming the scenario team. Using consultants? Determining the initial focus/use for the scenarios. Defining the scope and time horizon. Chapter 4: Laying the Foundation.Identifying the key decision factors" (i.e., "What we need to know about the future in order to make the decision"). Identifying and assessing the range of macro- and micro-forces that will shape the dynamics of the future environment. Identifying and assessing the critical uncertainties.Part 3: DEVELOPING AND USING SCENARIOS.Chapter 5: Building the Scenarios.How many scenarios should you create? Structuring the scenarios (the use of "scenario logics"). "Telling the stories" (the importance of "the plot"). Assigning graphic titles. The question of quantification. The issue of probabilities.Chapter 6: Implementation -- From Scenarios to Strategy.Assessing opportunities and threats. Linking scenarios to other planning tools (e.g., value chain analysis). Testing current (or proposed) strategy. Developing-and assessing-strategy options. Contingency planning.Chapter 7: Leveraging the Scenarios.Communicating the results. Motivating action. Linking scenarios to scanning and monitoring (a "comprehensive environmental analysis system").Chapter 8: Changing the Culture.Developing an educational program (to change behavior). Creating a learning organization. The critical importance of executive example."
