Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction : The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting（2）

著者名：Robertson, Andrew (EDT)/Vitart, Frederic (EDT)

Elsevier（2025/11/10発売）

• 言語：ENG
• ISBN：9780443315381
• eISBN：9780443315398

Description

Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction provides the latest thinking from experts in the fields of sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. This fully updated second edition comprehensively covers the sources of S2S predictability, S2S modeling, and forecasting using dynamical or machine learning methods, and S2S applications. There are brand new chapters on the role of the ocean in sub-seasonal predictability, machine learning in S2S prediction, co-produced S2S climate services in Africa, S2S for energy, and marine weather prediction on S2S timescales. This valuable resource offers atmospheric and climate scientists the very latest developments in this rapidly evolving field.- Contributed chapters from experts in S2S science and forecasting updated for use in an emerging and interdisciplinary field- Synthesis of the state of S2S science, through the use of concrete examples that enable potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for use in their own decision setting- Broad set of interdisciplinary linked topics, illustrated with graphic examples to powerfully illustrate the interdisciplinary linkages

Table of Contents

1. Introduction: why subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction?2. Weather forecasting: what sets the forecast skill horizon?3. Weather within climate: subseasonal predictability of tropical daily rainfall characteristics4. The Madden–Julian oscillation5. Extratropical subseasonal-to-seasonal oscillations and multiple regimes: the dynamical systems view6. Tropical-extratropical interactions and teleconnections7. Land surface processes relevant to subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction8. The role of the ocean in subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability and prediction9. The role of sea ice in subseasonal to seasonal predictability10. Subseasonal predictability and the stratosphere11. Forecast system design, configuration, and complexity12. The THORPEX interactive grand global ensemble and subseasonal-to-seasonal ensembles13. Forecast recalibration and multimodel combination14. Forecast verification for subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales15. Machine learning for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction16. Subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction of weather extremes17. Pilot experiences in using seamless forecasts for early action: Ready–Set–Go approach in the Red Cross18. Communication and dissemination of forecasts and engaging user communities19. Subseasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon variability and extreme weather events20. Predicting climate impacts on health at subseasonal to seasonal timescales21. Coproducing reliable, actionable subseasonal-to-seasonal climate services across Africa22. Subseasonal to seasonal climate predictions for energy23. Subseasonal to seasonal forecasts enhance effective marine decision-making in a fast-changing ocean24. Epilogue