Description
Active killer attacks frequently dominate the headlines with stories of seemingly random mass killings in school, campus, and workplace settings. Nearly all of the attacks are over before the police can respond, leaving unanswered questions as to why these attacks happen and what can be done to prevent them. Fatal Grievances: Forecasting and Preventing Active Killer Threats in School, Campus, and Workplace Settings takes a proactive view of active killer threat management and resolution to prevent the attack before it occurs.
Drawing from established threat assessment, behavioral analysis, and law enforcement negotiation theory and practice, the book presents models and methods designed to forecast and prevent an active killer attack through the process of identification, assessment, and engagement. This approach begins with definitions and orientations to violence, the importance of the primacy of focusing on direct behaviors of planned lethal violence over other more indirect behaviors, understanding how to identify a fatal grievance and that only fatal grievances result in planned lethal violence, the importance of understanding the process of crisis intervention as the key to eliminating the fatal grievance and the motivation to kill, and the use of time-series predictive behavioral threat forecasting methods to prevent an active killer attack. Case studies from within the United States (US) and abroad support this unique approach to threat assessment and make the concepts and principles accessible to professionals working in the fields of education, human resources, and security.
Table of Contents
Preface
Chapter 1. Introduction And Orientation to Active Killer Threat Assessment
- Scope of this book
- A paradigm shift from active shooters to active killers
- A change in mindset from being reactive to proactive
- Assessment versus analysis
- Threat intelligence collection and assessment
- The problem with "profiling" active killers
- The importance of operationalizing definitions
Chapter 2. Active Killer Characteristics: Myths Vs. Statistics
- Myth 1: active killers are everywhere
- Myth 2: active killers are only a problem in the United States
- Myth 3: disgruntled students and employees are the only threat to safety
- Myth 4: the attacker just "snapped"
- Myth 5: demographics can identify an active killer
Chapter 3. Direct Behaviors of Planned Lethal Violence
- Active killer motivations
- Grievance as a precursor of lethal violence
- Grievance and the crisis state
- The fatal grievance pathway
- Planned lethal violence
- Direct behaviors and stages of planned lethal violence
- Direct behavioral clusters of planned lethal violence
- The planned lethal violence stairway model
Chapter 4. Indirect Behavioral Indicators of Planned Lethal Violence And Situational Distressors
- Indirect behaviors
- Primary indirect behavioral indicators
- Secondary indirect behavioral indicators
- Stress and violence
- Situational distress
- Situational distressors
Chapter 5. Threat Management and Resolution: Identifying The Threat
- The necessity of structure in active killer threat assessment
- Forensic investigation and behavioral analytical methods
- Contextual factors
- Factors of social desirability
- The role of social fabric in threat assessment
- Detecting behavioral indicators of planned lethal violence
- Baselines and anomalies
- Establishing baselines and identifying anomalies
- Bias and error considerations in detecting concerning behavior
Chapter 6. Threat Management and Resolution: Assessing The Threat
- The problem with relying on "pre-attack behaviors" in threat assessment
- Understanding significancy and frequency of anomalies
- Prediction and threat assessment
- Forecasting in threat assessment
- Qualitative and quantitative forecasting
- Predictive analytics and modeling
- Predictive behavioral threat forecasting
- Methodology
- Qualitative adjustments to threat confidence levels
- Completing the threat assessment
- Bias errors in assessing a threat
Chapter 7. Threat Management and Resolution: Engaging The Threat
- Conflict management vs. conflict resolution
- Monitoring
- Third-party intervention
- Direct interventions
- Engagements based on threat level
Chapter 8. Limitations And Conclusion
- Summary of key takeaways
- Limitations
Appendix A
Appendix B
Appendix C
Index
References
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