Description
Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters covers all major aspects of catastrophe risk modeling, from hazards through to financial analysis. It explores relevant new science in risk modeling, indirect losses, assessment of impact and consequences to insurance losses, and current changes in risk modeling practice, along with case studies. It also provides further insight into the shortcomings of current models and examines model risk and ideas to diversify risk assessment.Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters instructs readers on how to assess, price and then hedge the losses from natural and manmade catastrophes. This book reviews current model development and science and explains recent changes in the catastrophe modeling space, including new initiatives covering uncertainty and big data in the assessment of risk for insurance pricing and portfolio management. Edited by a leading expert in both hazards and risk, this book is authored by a global panel including major modeling vendors, modeling consulting firms, and well-known catastrophe modeling scientists. Risk Modeling for Hazards and Disasters provides important insight into how models are used to price and manage risk.- Includes high profile case studies such as the Newcastle earthquake, Hurricane Andrew and Hurricane Katrina- Provides crucial information on new ideas and platforms that will help address the new demands for risk management and catastrophe risk reporting- Presents the theory and practice needed to know how models are created and what is and what is not important in the modeling process- Covers relevant new science in risk modeling, indirect losses, assessment of impact and consequences to insurance losses, and current changes in risk modeling practice, along with case studies
Table of Contents
SECTION I: Catastrophe Models, General Concepts and Methods1. Quantifying Model Uncertainty and RiskNilesh Shome, Mohsen Rahnama, Steve Jewson, and Paul Wilson 2. What Makes a Catastrophe Model RobustJay Guin 3. Towards a more Dynamical Paradigm for Natural Catastrophe Risk ModellingDavid Stephenson, Alasdair Hunter, Ben Youngman, and Ian Cook 4. Empirical fragility and vulnerability assessment: not just a regressionTiziana Rossett and Ioanna IoannouSECTION II: Model Creation, Specific Perils and Data5. The use of historic loss data for insurance and total loss modellingJames Daniell, Friedemann Wenzel, and Andreas Schaefer6. Indirect Loss Potential Index for Natural disasters for National and sub-national analysisJames Daniell, Bijan Khazai, Friedemann Wenzel7. Probability gain from seismicity-based earthquake modelsKristy Tiampo, Robert Shcherbakov, and Paul Kovacs8. Big data challenges and hazards modellingKristy Tiampo, Seth McGinnis, Yelena Kropivnitskaya, Jinhui Qin, and Michael Bauer9. Progress towards hyper-resolution models of global flood hazardPaul Bates, Jeff Neal, Chris Sampson, Andy Smith, and Mark TriggSECTION III: Model Insurance Use-Cases10. Insurance Pricing and Portfolio Management using Catastrophe ModelsHelena Bickley and Gero Michel11. Portfolio Optimization Using Catastrophe Model Results, a Use Case from the Insurance IndustryAugustin Yiptong and Gero MichelSECTION IV: Model Risk, Resilience and New Concepts12. Parsimonious risk assessment and the role of transparent diverse modelsPatrick McSharry 13. Creating a Probabilistic Catastrophe Model with the Characteristic Event MethodologyKaren Clark 14. From Risk Management to Quantitative Disaster Resilience: A New Paradigm for Catastrophe ModellingSlobodan Simonovic 15. Beyond 'model risk': a practice perspective on modelling in insuranceAndreas Tsanakas and Laure Cabantous
