Full Description
In a time of unprecedented economic uncertainty, this book provides empirical guidance to the economy and what to expect in the near and distant future. Beginning with a historic look at major contributions to economic indicators and business cycles starting with Wesley Clair Mitchell (1913) to Burns and Mitchell (1946), to Moore (1961) and Zarnowitz (1992), this book explores time series forecasting and economic cycles, which are currently maintained and enhanced by The Conference Board. Given their highly statistically significant relationship with GDP and the unemployment rate, these relationships are particularly useful for practitioners to help predict business cycles.
Contents
Chapter 1. Economic Growth and Business Cycles in the United States.- Chapter 2. Mr. Wesley Clair Mitchell: The Advent of U.S. and NBER Business Cycle Research.- Chapter 3. Measuring Business Activity, An Introductions to the Contributions of Mr. Persons, Mr. Schumpeter, Mr. Haberler, and Mr. Eckstein.- Chapter 4. Mr. Burns and Mr. Mitchell on Measuring Business Cycles.- Chapter 5. Mr. Geoffrey Moore and NBER Business Cycle Research.- Chapter 6. Mr. Victor Zarnowitz and Economic Forecasting, and NBER Business Cycle Research.- Chapter 7. Regression and Time Series Modeling of Real GDP, the Unemployment Rate, and the Impact of Leading Economic Indicators on Forecasting Accuracy.- Chapter 8. Granger-Causality Testing and LEI Forecasting of Quarterly Mergers and the Unemployment Rate.- Chapter 9. Active Management in Portfolio Selection and Management within Business Cycles and Present-Day COVID.- Chapter 10. Testing and Forecasting the Unemployment Rate with the Most Current Data, TCB LEI, data as of 11/05/2021.- Chapter 11. Conclusions and Summary.
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