Full Description
This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.
Contents
Chapter 1. Introduction.- Chapter 2. Stochastic population forecasting: A Bayesian approach based on evaluation by experts.- Chapter 3. Using expert elicitation to build long-term projection assumptions.- Chapter 4. Post-Transitional Demography and Convergence: What can we Learn from Half a Century of World Population Prospects?.- Chapter 5. Projecting Proportionate Age-Specific Fertility Rates via Bayesian Skewed Processes.- Chapter 6. A Three-component Approach to Model and Forecast Age-at-death Distributions.- Chapter 7. Alternative forecasts of Danish life expectancy.- Chapter 8. Coherent mortality forecasting with standards: low mortality serves as a guide.- Chapter 9. European mortality forecasts: Are the targets still moving?.- Chapter 10. Bayesian disaggregated forecasts: Internal migration in Iceland.- Chapter 11. Forecasting origin-destination-age-sex migration flow tables with multiplicative components.- Chapter 12. New Approaches to the Conceptualization and Measurementof Age and Ageing.
