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Full Description
'The Keys to
Downing Street' is an utterly unique guide to British General Elections,
offering a refreshingly penetrating insight into how our democracy works.
The book is
both a history book, graphically bringing to life the political history of the
United Kingdom since 1945, and a guide to forecasting our political future. It
is an adaptation of Professor Alan Lichtman's brilliant American Presidential
forecasting method to the UK political system. Lichtman's 'Keys' have correctly
forecast every US Presidential election since 1984, and now, with his kind
permission, the wisdom of his methodology is now shedding light on the
political process this side of the pond.
Although the
unexpected return of Nigel Farage to the forefront of British politics during
the 2024 campaign came too late to be incorporated into the forecast for the
2024 election, the author did publicise an updated forecast in the days before
the poll. He predicted a Labour majority of 170 - they actually got one of 174!
Contents
Introduction 5
Chapter 1 13
the Keys 13
Chapter 2 58
1945-51 the Atlee years: socialism, de-colonisation, and
Cold War 58
Chapter 3: 89
1951-64: the long fifties: Conservative consolidation,
colonial crises and consumerism 89
Chapter 4 133
1964-1979: cultural revolution and national decline 133
Chapter 5: 1979-1997: 201
breaking the Post-War consensus: privatisation, war on
the unions, Argentina, and inflation. detonating the City 201
Chapter 6: 277
1997-2010 the New Labour years: reconciling Thatcherism
with social democracy and law & order with liberalism 277
Chapter 7: 341
2010-2024: Austerity Brexit COVID & Cost of Living
crisis 341
Introduction. 5
Chapter 1. 13
the Keys. 13
Chapter 2. 58
1945-51 the Atlee years: socialism, de-colonisation, and
Cold War 58
Chapter 3: 89
1951-64: the long fifties: Conservative consolidation,
colonial crises and consumerism 89
Chapter 4. 133
1964-1979: cultural revolution and national decline. 133
Chapter 5: 1979-1997: 201
breaking the Post-War consensus: privatisation, war on
the unions, Argentina, and inflation. detonating the City. 201
Chapter 6: 277
1997-2010 the New Labour years: reconciling Thatcherism
with social democracy and law & order with liberalism.. 277
Chapter 7: 341
2010-2024: Austerity Brexit COVID & Cost of Living
crisis 341
Chapter 8: questions and criticisms. 444
Why the keys don't work before 1945. 444
Chapter 9: counterfactuals. 452
Chapter 10: the lessons of the Keys. 514
