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Full Description
Emerging markets have been around for a while as an investment theme and as such have been off and on the list for many investors and corporations worldwide during the last 20 years depending on where we were in the global economic cycle. In fact, the term emerging markets actually has become obsolete as it now covers a long list of countries with each country reflecting a different economic, industrial, cultural and monetary outlook. Despite the fact that they make up about 35% of global GDP (and that is expected to grow to 50% over the next 20 years) these many investors (and companies likewise) have a minor, although growing, exposure to those regions in the world. Home bias and the historical super cyclical nature of those regions have made investors stay away or move in and out while riding the hot money wave. So far for globalization pur sang. Since the 2008-2009 financial crisis those regions have obtained more visibility than ever before as a place with increasing financial stability and a more balanced economic outlook and clear dynamics for growth. But what makes them really attractive and how to select from such a heterogeneous pool of economies? In this book we look behind the curtain of these economies and evidence what industries look most promising in which region and/or countries. Cruising the different regions and countries using real-life examples this book fleshes out the dynamics of these economies and the industries that will give some of those countries a long-term competitive advantage in tomorrow's global economy. Moving beyond the credo's of 'the rising middleclass', 'rising domestic demand', 'excellent demographics' and the 'unlimited need for infrastructure' shaping tomorrow's marketplace helps you develop your investment or corporate philosophy to navigate those countries and the ever-growing economic interconnectedness of these economies. This book allows you to develop your set of philosophies to determine which industries in which economies deserve attention and what financial products are most suitable to get access to those markets and the opportunities you spotted in a meaningful way. Performance and trends per asset class will be reviewed. It further evaluates the corporate strategic options that will determine or enhance success for corporations active or looking to be active in these economies - a challenge many took on but so far only a few mastered the art of embracing those often challenging environments. In line with contemporary thinking, managing and diversifying types of risk will play a crucial role in the background. Finally, the book demonstrates how in a semi-globalized world, where capital flows after the crisis have become more regionalized, the role of OECD economies will be crucial for the further development of those emerging economies and which industries will ultimately contribute to shaping tomorrow's marketplace. Part of that equation will force us to look at the long-term impact of new age protectionism, austerity and other ways governments and societies are dealing with the new reality since the crisis and how a reversal in globalization patterns could affect the outlook for those economies and the global economy as a whole and ultimately your investment philosophies
Contents
Contents 1 What a challenging environment we live in! The gap between reality and investment behaviour The minimum conditions for a successful further integration of emerging markets in the global economy The (potential) role of scenario modelling of the future Globalisation and competition The dilapidated Western democracy with little problem-solving capacity Black Swans and our addiction to probability analysis Reforming the global landscape in a meaningful way Potential role of the decoupling theme 2 The fall of Communism and the rise of an enlarged Europe A brief overview of (recent) history The complexities and intertwining of Russian economy and politics Protectionism being part of the economic landscape State finances Areas of potential economic interest The wider CIS region and its potential The CEE region and its inclusion in the wider Europe The future of the CEE economies Meaningful and sustainable growth as a country-by-country phenomenon The battered financial services industry in the CEE region Gaining access to those (few) opportunities 5 3 The final and maybe last frontier markets Classifying the dynamics of the region and its countries SSA after the 2008 financial crisis The industry mix that makes the region and its individual countries attractive Regional multi-industry development on the continent The China-Africa axis and its implications Bi-polar SSA continued The infrastructure theme The resources play Back to the consumer Variety in African opportunities Some sort of temporary conclusion 4 Making up our minds: Middle East, MENA or MENASA as an integrated emerging cluster? 4 Setting the stage How oil and gas was the beginning, but not the end (hopefully) The rise of Islamic finance The public markets in the MENA region The family business within the context of state capitalism Turkey - a country with more potential than it realises The role of conglomerates in the Middle East (and emerging markets overall) 1 The more diversified economies of Northern Africa The consumer markets in the MENA region The conventional fixed-income markets in the MENA region The UAE - more than oil and gas, but too fast, too furious Risks and challenges undermining the future of business and the long-term potential of the region Time to draw a conclusion and ways of seeking exposure 5 Latin America: formerly known as the next emerging markets The emerging customer Natural resources in the region Agribusiness and efforts in relation to climate change Mexico: the manufacturing hub of the US Is there only good news? Consumer preferences and behaviours as a source of investment opportunities Private equity in a Latin world full of small and medium sized entities (SMEs) Fixed income markets in the region The next emerging markets revisited: conclusion 6 The shifting pendulum: Asia to be (part of) the global centre stage Asia: a bi-polar region China: the manufacturing hub of the world (and some other features) The world's largest consumer market in the making Where to go from here? The next leader in green energy and technology India: slow(er) but beautiful An infrastructure-happy spending government The relentless need for energy (and policy) Understanding the Indian consumer Real estate Offshore aerospace engineering South-East Asia: more than the next workshop of the world Fixed income markets in the region Wrap up and outlook 7 Corporate emerging markets - aspirations and reality Framework development Identifying business opportunities and formulating matching corporate strategies in emerging markets Value creation in emerging markets The way forward: visible hurdles and attempts to define (a possible) transitory endgame The battle continues 8 Philosophies, performance and conclusion Derivatives in emerging markets The link between commodities and emerging markets 'The West versus the rest' paradigm Emerging markets open up new trade corridors and ways to facilitate trade across emerging markets The emerging markets ETF space Real estate or how the economy colonised our Lebenswelt The cost of global finance The good, the bad and the ugly of performance Building your own investment philosophies regarding emerging markets and global portfolios - the impossible task of concluding Postscript
