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Full Description
Dynamic factor models (DFM) constitute an active and growing area of research, both in econometrics, in macroeconomics, and in finance. Many applications lie at the center of policy questions raised by the recent financial crises, such as the connections between yields on government debt, credit risk, inflation, and economic growth. This volume collects a key selection of up-to-date contributions that cover a wide range of issues in the context of dynamic factor modeling, such as specification, estimation, and application of DFMs. Examples include further developments in DFM for mixed-frequency data settings, extensions to time-varying parameters and structural breaks, for multi-level factors associated with subsets of variables, in factor augmented error correction models, and in many other related aspects. A number of contributions propose new estimation procedures for DFM, such as spectral expectation-maximization algorithms and Bayesian approaches. Numerous applications are discussed, including the dating of business cycles, implied volatility surfaces, professional forecaster survey data, and many more.
Contents
PART I: METHODOLOGY
An Overview of the Factor-Augmented Error-Correction Model - Anindya Banerjee, Massimiliano Marcellino and Igor Masten
Estimation of VAR Systems from Mixed-Frequency Data: the Stock and the Flow Case - Lukas Koelbl, Alexander Braumann, Elisabeth Felsenstein and Manfred Deistler
Modelling Yields at the Zero Lower Bound: Are Shadow Rates the Solution? - Jens H. E. Christensen and Glenn D. Rudebusch
Dynamic Factor Models for the Volatility Surface - Michel Van Der Wel, Sait R. Ozturk and Dick Van Dijk
PART II: FACTOR STRUCTURE AND SPECIFICATION
Analyzing International Business and Financial Cycles Using Multi-Level Factor Models: a Comparison of Alternative Approaches - Jorg Breitung and Sandra Eickmeier
Fast ML Estimation of Dynamic Bifactor Models: an Application to European Inflation - Gabriele Fiorentini, Alessandro Galesi and Enrique Sentana
Country Shocks, Monetary Policy Expectations and ECB Decisions. a Dynamic Non-Linear Approach - Maximo Camacho, Danilo Leiva-Leon and Gabriel Perez-Quiros
Modelling Financial Markets Comovements During Crises: a Dynamic Multi-Factor Approach - Martin Belvisi, Riccardo Pianeti and Giovanni Urga
Specification and Estimation of Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models: a Monte Carlo Analysis with an Application to Global House Price Comovement - Laura E. Jackson, M. Ayhan Kose, Christopher Otrok and Michael T. Owyang
Small-versus Big-Data Factor Extraction In Dynamic Factor Models: an Empirical Assessment - Pilar Poncela and Esther Ruiz
PART III: INSTABILITY
Regularized Estimation of Structural Instability In Factor Models: the US Macroeconomy and the Great Moderation - Laurent Callot and Johannes Tang Kristensen
Dating Business Cycle Turning Points for the French Economy: an MS-DFM Approach - Catherine Doz and Anna Petronevich
Common Faith or Parting Ways? a Time Varying Parameters Factor Analysis of Euro-Area Inflation - Davide Delle Monache, Ivan Petrella and Fabrizio Venditti
PART IV: NOWCASTING AND FORECASTING
Nowcasting Business Cycles: a Bayesian Approach to Dynamic Heterogeneous Factor Models - Antonello D'Agostino, Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza and Michele Modugno
On the Selection of Common Factors for Macroeconomic Forecasting - Alessandro Giovannelli and Tommaso Proietti
On the Design of Data Sets for Forecasting with Dynamic Factor Models - Gerhard Runstler
