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Full Description
Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a China specialist based in Hong Kong, provides an overview of "Thucydides' Trap," as coined by political scientist Graham Allison to describe the inescapable conflict between Beijing and Washington. Is China's growing power a threat to the United States? Could it lead to war between the two nations?
Economically and militarily stronger, and more nationalist than ever, the People's Republic of China is increasingly tempted to use force to assert its power, especially in its immediate region. First, the author considers the factors around the threat of war, specifically on the Chinese side, then presents the three most likely armed conflict scenarios: around Taiwan; in the South China Sea; or in the Senkaku Islands under Japanese control. Cabestan also analyses the tensions between China and India along their common borders, which were revived in 2020.
But the most likely scenario, according to Cabestan, would be a rapid, piecemeal attack, aimed at tearing borders apart or defending vested interests - not to mention increased cyber warfare. It could also manifest itself as the emergence of a new type of cold war, punctuated by crises bordering on either a nuclear strike or the use of new weapons. U.S.-Chinese tensions and the many potential fronts on which they could elevate are a conflict-in-waiting which will weigh on the 21st century and dominate international life as China seeks to become entrenched as a dominant world power.
Contents
Introduction: The Thucydides Trap Revisited
1 An Accumulation of Passions and Ammunition
China
The United States
China's Main Neighbors: Japan, India, Australia
Conclusion
2 War Risks Debate in China
China's Official Position: Xi Intends Avoiding War
Debates Among Chinese Experts
Conclusion
3 Is a Sino-US War over Taiwan Likely?
Evolution in Chinese Reunification Strategy and US Engagements
The PLA's Specific Preparations for War against Taiwan
Evolution of Debates in China over an Anti-Taiwan War
Evolution of US Debates over an Anti-Taiwan War
Evolution of Debates and Defense Policy in Taiwan
Gray Zones: Non-Military Ways of Subjugating Taiwan
Conclusion: The Impact of the Ukraine War and Its Limits
4 War Risks in the South China Sea
Various Parties' Claims and Controls
Proliferating Sino-US Conflicts
Conclusion
5 War Risks over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands
Chinese and Japanese Stands on the Dispute
Chinese Actions Aimed at Undermining Japanese Sovereignty over the Senkaku
Hardening of Japanese and US Stands and the 2014 Agreement
Crisis Management Mechanisms and Their Limitations
Enhanced Senkaku Militarization
Clarifications and Incertitudes
Conclusion
6 Border Tensions and Risks of a China-India War
Recent Rise in Border Tensions
Risks of Sino-Indian War
Conclusion
7 Which Armed Conflicts Might China Engage In?
Warning Signs
Strengthening PLA Projection Capabilities and Future MOA Scenarios
Conclusion
Conclusion: War or Peace Tomorrow?
War Will Likely Not Erupt Tomorrow
Risks or Armed Incidents and Military Crises
Sino-US Struggle for World Leadership: How Will It End?
Towards a New Kind of Cold War and Its Consequences for the Western Pacific
The Role of the US and Its Allies
About the Author
