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Rivals - states with acrimonious, militarized histories - often intervene on opposing sides of civil conflicts. These interventions are known to exacerbate and prolong civil wars, but scholars have yet to fully understand why states engage in them, given the significant costs and countervailing strategic interests.
Why Rivals Intervene argues that rivals are driven by security considerations at the international level - specifically, the prospect of future confrontations with their rival - to intervene in civil conflicts. Drawing on a theory of rivalry which accounts for this strategic rationale, John Mitton explores three case studies: Indian and Pakistani intervention in Afghanistan, Israeli and Syrian intervention in Lebanon, and US and Soviet intervention in Angola. The book examines a range of evidence, including declassified memoranda, meeting transcripts, government reports, published interviews, memoirs of political leaders, and other evidence of the thought process, rationale, and justifications of relevant decision-makers.
The book claims that the imperatives for intervention are consistent across time and space, as rivals are conditioned by a history of conflict to worry about future confrontations. As a result, Why Rivals Intervene illuminates an important driver of civil conflict, with implications for how such conflicts might be solved or mitigated in the future. At the same time, it offers new insight into the nature of long-standing, acrimonious international relationships.
Contents
List of Tables
List of Figures
List of Maps
1. Introduction
International Intervention into Civil Conflicts
International Rivalry
Summary of Findings
Roadmap
2. A Theory of Rivalry (Intervention)
Pathological Rivalry
Rational Rivalry
Interpersonal vs. International Rivalry
Rivalry as "Continuous Negotiation"
Reputations and Rivalry
Rivalry under Anarchy and the Search for Security
Situating the Theory
A Causal Mechanism Explanation for Rivalry Intervention
The Case Studies
Key Terms
Civil Conflict
Intervention
Conclusion
3. The India-Pakistan Rivalry
The Nature of the Rivalry
Crises and Conflict, 1947-2001
Perceptions in 2001
The War in Afghanistan
4. Indian Intervention in Afghanistan
India in Afghanistan
Economic Opportunities
Regional Influence/Global Power Projection
Security Concerns
The Rivalry Explanation
5. Pakistani Intervention in Afghanistan
Pakistan in Afghanistan
Pakistan's Support for the Insurgency
The Rivalry Explanation
Possible Alternative Explanations
Assessing the Interventions
6. The Syrian-Israeli Rivalry and Intervention in Lebanon
The Nature of the Rivalry
Crises and Conflict, 1948-75
Israeli and Syrian Perceptions in 1975
Intervention in Lebanon
Lebanese Civil War, 1975-76
Syrian Intervention, 1975-76
Israeli Intervention, 1975-76
Red-Line Agreement
Israel and Syria in Lebanon, 1977-81
Lebanon War (1982-5)
The Rivalry Explanation
7. The US-Soviet Rivalry and Intervention in Angola
The Nature of the Rivalry
Crises and Conflict, 1947-75
US and Soviet Perceptions in 1975
Intervention in Angola
Angolan Civil War, 1975
Soviet Intervention in Angola
US Intervention in Angola
The Rivalry Explanation
8. Conclusion
Summary of Findings
Theoretical Implications
Policy Implications
References