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Full Description
This book provides a framework for analyzing and forecasting a variety of mineral and energy markets and related industries. Such modeling activity has been at the forefront of the economic and engineering professions for some time, having received a major stimulus fC?llowing the first oil price shock in 1973. Since that time, other shocks have affected these markets and industries, causing disequilibrium economic adjustments which are difficult to analyze and to predict. Moreover, geopolitics remains an important factor which can destabilize crude oil markets and associated refining industries. Mineral and energy modeling, consequently, has become a major interest of energy-related corporations, mining and drilling companies, metal manufacturers, public utilities, investment banks,. national government agencies and international organizations. This book hopes to advance mineral and energy modeling as follows: (1) The modeling process is presented sequentially by leading the model builder from model specification, estimation, simulation, and validation to practical model applications, including explaining history, analyzing policy, and market and price forecasting; (2) New developments in modeling approaches are presented which encompass econometric market and industry models, spatial equilibrium and programming models, optimal resource depletion models, input-output models, economic sector models, and macro oriented energy interaction models (including computable general equilibrium); (3) The verification and application of the models is considered not only individually but also in relation to the performance of alternative modeling approaches; and (4) The modeling framework includes a perspective on new directions, so that the present model building advice willextend into the future.
Contents
1 Introduction.- 2 Essential Steps to Modeling.- 3 Economic Sector Models.- Demand Models.- Supply Models.- Price Models.- 4 Econometric Market or Industry Models.- Competitive Market Models.- Controlled Market Models.- Demand Models.- Supply Models.- Energy Conservation Models.- 5 Spatial Equilibrium and Programming Models.- Linear and Transportation Programming.- Process Programming.- Quadratic Programming.- Mixed Integer Programming.- Linear Complementarity Programming.- 6 Resource Exhaustion Models.- Monopolist Models.- Stackelberg Models.- Nash-Cournot Models.- Modified Optimization Models.- 7 Input-Output Models.- 8 Economy Interaction Models.- Integrated Energy Models.- Energy-Economy Models.- Energy-Environment-Economy Models.- Computable General Equilibrium Models.- 9 Resource Balance Models.- Energy Analysis Models.- Energy Gap Models.- 10 Transition Models.- 11 Evaluation of Models.- 12 Selection among Approaches.- Econometric Models.- Spatial and Programming Models.- Input-Output Models.- Data Requirements.- 13 The Future.- Sectoral Price Models.- Sectoral Inventory Models.- Risk Analysis and Investment Models.- Mineral and Energy Market Models.- Energy-Environment-Economy Models.- Postscript.- References.
