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Full Description
This book provides the first assessment of the performance of three leading European polities in providing estimative intelligence during an era of surprise. It develops a new framework for conducting postmortems guided by a normative model of anticipatory foreign policy. The comparative analysis focuses on how the UK, the EU and Germany handled three cases of major surprises: the Arab uprisings, the rise to power of the Islamic State (ISIS), and the Russian annexation of Crimea. It considers not just government intelligence assessments, but also diplomatic reporting and expert open sources and how these assessments were received by organisational leaders. The book tests and develops new theories about the causes of strategic surprises, going beyond a common focus on intelligence versus policy failures to identify challenges and factors that cut across both communities. With the help of former senior officials, the book identifies lessons yet to be learnt by European polities to better anticipate and prepare for future surprises.
Contents
Acknowledgements Introduction: Estimative Intelligence And Anticipatory Foreign Policy Guttmann, Ikani, Meyer & Michaels *
Chapter 1: Expectations From Estimative Intelligence & Anticipatory Foreign Policy Ikani, Meyer, Michaels & Guttmann *
Chapter 2: Surprise, Revisited: An Eu Performance Evaluation Of The Arab Uprisings Ikani *
Chapter 3: How Germany And The Uk Anticipated Isis' Rise To Power In Syria And Iraq Guttmann & Micheals *
Chapter 4: The Ukraine-Russia Undeclared War 2013/2014: Lessons For The Eu's Estimative Intelligence Meyer & Ikani *
Chapter 5: The Uk - Intelligence Assessment, Priorities And Knowing That You Are Being Warned Rimmer *
Chapter 6: "We Never Plan For The Worst Case" - Considering The Case Of Germany Schlie & Lutsch *
Chapter 7: Lessons Learned And Still To Be Learned: The Case Of The European Union Conrad *
Chapter 8: Which Lessons To Learn From An Era Of Surprise? Key Findings And Implications Meyer, Guttmann & Ikani *
Contributors *
