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Full Description
This book develops a new framework for conducting postmortems guided by a normative model of anticipatory foreign policy. It is the first assessment of the performance of three leading European polities in providing estimative intelligence during an era of surprise. The comparative analysis focuses on how the UK, the EU and Germany handled three cases of major surprises: the Arab uprisings, the rise to power of the Islamic State (ISIS), and the Russian annexation of Crimea. It considers government intelligence assessments, diplomatic reporting and expert open sources, and how organisational leaders received these assessments. The book tests and develops new theories about the causes of strategic surprises, going beyond a common focus on intelligence versus policy failures to identify challenges and factors that cut across analyst and decision-maker communities. Drawing on insights and chapters provided by former senior officials, the book identifies lessons to learn from European polities to better anticipate and prepare for future surprises.
Contents
Acknowledgements Introduction: Estimative Intelligence And Anticipatory Foreign Policy Guttmann, Ikani, Meyer & Michaels *
Chapter 1: Expectations From Estimative Intelligence & Anticipatory Foreign Policy Ikani, Meyer, Michaels & Guttmann *
Chapter 2: Surprise, Revisited: An Eu Performance Evaluation Of The Arab Uprisings Ikani *
Chapter 3: How Germany And The Uk Anticipated Isis' Rise To Power In Syria And Iraq Guttmann & Micheals *
Chapter 4: The Ukraine-Russia Undeclared War 2013/2014: Lessons For The Eu's Estimative Intelligence Meyer & Ikani *
Chapter 5: The Uk - Intelligence Assessment, Priorities And Knowing That You Are Being Warned Rimmer *
Chapter 6: "We Never Plan For The Worst Case" - Considering The Case Of Germany Schlie & Lutsch *
Chapter 7: Lessons Learned And Still To Be Learned: The Case Of The European Union Conrad *
Chapter 8: Which Lessons To Learn From An Era Of Surprise? Key Findings And Implications Meyer, Guttmann & Ikani *
Contributors *
