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Full Description
The increase in the "incumbency effect" has long dominated as a research focus and as a framework for interpreting congressional elections. This important new book challenges the empirical claim that incumbents are doing better and the research paradigm that accompanied the claim. It also offers an alternative interpretation of House elections since the 1960s. In a style that is provocative yet fair, learned, and transparent, Jeffrey Stonecash makes a two-pronged argument: frameworks and methodologies suffer when they stop being critically considered, and patterns of House elections over the long term actually reflect party change and realignment. A must-read for scholars and students of congressional elections.
Contents
Part I: A Conventional Wisdom and Its Importance
1. The Fortunes of Incumbents and Interpreting Political Change
2. Vanishing Marginals, a Research Agenda, and Political Responsiveness
Part II: The Data and Doubts
3. The Basics: Percentages, Averages, and Careers
4. The Presidential-House Connection Issue
5. The Gelman-King Estimation (and the Role of Open Seats)
Part III: The Role and Emergence of a Paradigm
6. The Puzzle and an Interpretative Framework: Kuhn
7. Embracing One Paradigm and Discarding Another
8. A Consensus and Normal Science
9. Embracing and Sustaining a Paradigm: Why?
Part IV: An Alternative
10. An Alternative Framework and Analysis
11. Paradigms and Understanding American Politics
Bibliography
Index
