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Full Description
This book presents a contemporary view of the approaches and theories that inform global scenario planning and foresight science, providing practical recommendations for improving scenario development processes. Its insights bridge the gap between last century's foundations and this century's innovations.
Megan M. Crawford and George Wright bring together a global team of expert authors to illustrate the development of scenario storylines and the role of a facilitator in team-based activities and processes. They detail practical scenario applications, provide guidance for practice improvement, and analyse the use of scenario thinking in strategic choice. Together, the authors show the path of scenario development, from foundation to validation, and explore new and broader views of futures thinking, scenario methodologies, innovative developments, and practical applications that reflect the evolution of the field.
With guidance for practitioners and support for academics across the fields of futures and foresight science, Improving and Enhancing Scenario Planning is a valuable resource. Students of business, management, innovation and technology will also find this book beneficial.
Contents
Contents
Introduction 1
PART I FOUNDATION
1 Sorting out the "methodological chaos": A tour of the main methodological structures of scenario planning 7
Jörg M. Delhaes, Ana C. L. Vieira, António Alvarenga and Mónica D. Oliveira
2 Update on a theoretical model of scenario planning: Empirical evidence and supporting research - towards a theory 33
Thomas J. Chermack and Jessica M. Serkey Bishop
PART II FRAMING CONSIDERATIONS
3 Escaping the Enlightenment's damaging legacy: Scenario planning as if-then conditional prospection 54
James Derbyshire
4 The wayfinder's approach to futures 73
Mushfiqa Monica Jamaluddin, Heba Alhadyian and Abdulrahman Alsulaimi
5 Reframing and futures literacy: Tackling the poverty of the modern imagination 96
Kwamou Eva Feukeu
6 The wilds beyond 2x2 futures: An enquiry into decolonising foresight 119
Sophia Bazile and Geci Karuri-Sebina
7 Exploring cultural diversity in scenario planning and futures thinking practices 143
Per Dannemand Andersen and Monamie B. Haines
PART III DEVELOPING SCENARIO STORYLINES
8 From causality to relationality: (Re)emplotting scenarios 166
A�d�a�m� �C�o�w�a�r�t� �
9 Designing scenarios from stakeholders' acts: Directions and lessons from extreme strategic action scenarios 183
F�a�b�r�i�c�e� �R�o�u�b�e�l�a�t� �a�n�d� �A�n�n�e� �M�a�r�c�h�a�i�s�-�R�o�u�b�e�l�a�t� �
PART IV PROCESS INTERVENTIONS
10 Examining emotion in the facilitation of scenario planning 202
N�i�c�h�o�l�a�s� �J�.� �R�o�w�l�a�n�d� �a�n�d� �M�a�t�t�h�e�w� �J�.� �S�p�a�n�i�o�l� �
11 Exploring creativity and insight in the scenario process 221
G�ök�h�a�n� �G�ök�m�e�n� �a�n�d� �P�e�t�e�r� �M�c�K�i�e�r�n�a�n� �
12 In the thick of it: Scenario planning at a time of crisis 244
M�a�u�r�e�e�n� �M�e�a�d�o�w�s�,� �A�l�e�s�s�a�n�d�r�o� �M�e�r�e�n�d�i�n�o� �a�n�d� �F�r�a�n�c�e�s� �A�.� �O�'B�r�i�e�n� �
13 Team diversity in scenario planning: Theoretical insights and implications for team composition 266
H�a�r�r�y� �P�a�t�r�i�a� �a�n�d� �E�f�s�t�a�t�h�i�o�s� �T�a�p�i�n�o�s� �
14 Leveraging AI for strategic foresight: Unveiling future horizons 286
E�l�e�n�a� �F�i�t�k�o�v�-�N�o�r�r�i�s� �a�n�d� �N�a�t�a�l�i�y�a� �K�o�c�h�e�v�a� �
PART V PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
15 The government foresight framework 307
M�a�r�i�a�m� �S�a�i�f� �A�l� �M�a�n�s�o�o�r�i� �
16 Designing utopian queer futures: Using scenario planning to think critically about the queer experience of artificial intelligence 330
D�a�w�n� �M�c�A�r�a�-�H�u�n�t�e�r� �
17 The COVID-19 pandemic as a wake-up call: Delphi-based scenarios and their implications for the generics and biosimilars industry 2030+ 354
N�i�c�k� �L�a�n�g�e�,� �H�e�i�k�o� �A�.� �v�o�n� �d�e�r� �G�r�a�c�h�t� �a�n�d� �S�t�e�f�a�n�i�e� �K�i�s�g�e�n� �
18 Methodological exploration of improved reference scenario approaches: A case study in NOVA SBE Executive Education 374
A�n�t�ón�i�o� �A�l�v�a�r�e�n�g�a� �a�n�d� �A�n�a� �C�.� �L�.� �V�i�e�i�r�a� �
PART VI OUTCOMES AND VALIDATIONS
19 Foresight, strategy, and impact 395
Adam Vigdor Gordon
20 A conceptual framework to evaluate scenarios and futures 406
Daniel J. W. Arthur and Graham W. Winch
21 Measuring the quality of scenarios generated using the simple scenarios technique 436
Dilek Önkal and Mandeep K. Dhami
22 Evaluating effects of scenario planning: Lessons from medical research 459
Shardul S. Phadnis
Index 487
