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Full Description
This book provides a rigorous analysis of the factors underlying the Philippines' relative economic stagnation compared with its Southeast Asian neighbours, despite sustained optimistic government rhetoric.
Three critical factors are identified: failure to industrialise and undergo a complete economic transformation, resulting in an underdeveloped agricultural sector and an economy dependent on low-productivity services; ineffective reforms that differ markedly from successful regional models; and self-defeating fiscal conservatism that has prevented adequate investment in essential public goods and industrial policy. Using two innovative economic models—a macro-econometric model and an employment-education forecasting model—the book offers forecasts of the Philippines' income per capita, poverty, or economic structure, through 2050. The researchers warn that unless the country's economic policy focuses on the transformation of the economy (with emphasis on the modernization of agriculture and developing the manufacturing sector), and the government adopts a more active role, the Philippines will experience More of the Same (MOTS) during the next decades.
An accessible resource for scholars, students, journalists, officials, and business professionals as an introduction to Philippine history, politics, and economy. The book will also be useful for development practitioners with its insights on structural transformation, and on fiscal and monetary policy.
Contents
Foreword by Arlene Inocencio
Foreword by Raul Fabella
Preface
1. Introduction and Overview of the Book
2. A Brief Overview of the Economic History of the Philippines
3. A Primer on Growth: Facts, Constraints, and Engines
4. The Structure of the Philippine Economy
5. Philippine Development Plans: Development Misunderstandings
6. Why has Philippine Progress Been Slow? Incomplete Land Reforms, the Role of Government, and a Weak State with a Rent-Seeking Private Sector
7. Why has Philippine Progress Been Slow? Failed Industrialization Programs
8. Innovation, Firms, Capabilities, and Modern Industrial Policy
9. Why is the Philippine State Weak? Spatial and Temporal Fragmentation Obstructing Structural Transformation
10. Employment and Education in the Philippines: Misconceptions and Realities
11. The Fiscal Deficit, the National Debt, and Monetary Reality: Old Habits Die Hard
12. The Philippine Economy Toward 2050: Aspirations and Reality
13. Forecasting Employment and Educational Needs
14. Poverty and the Cost of a Decent Basket: Who Can Afford It?
15. The Philippine Economy Toward 2050: Final Thoughts
References
Index
