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Full Description
This book analyses the concept of likelihood of success in just war thinking and argues that if the concept should be retained, it must be reconsidered within the overall whole of the tradition of just war.
The concept of likelihood of success has stood out as particularly troublesome to thinkers and practitioners in the just war tradition. The idea, while related to the other categories of just war such as proportionality and military necessity, can at times be confused with being an absolute rather than a co-belligerent criterion within the broader just war canon. With such an abstraction, justice can be collapsed into a kind of pragmatic calculation, favouring the powerful, and virtually invalidating insurrection, rebellion, or resistance. This volume brings together scholars and experts from across the tradition to reconsider and reconceptualize likelihood of success. It analyses this concept not only in light of the war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza, but also in historical cases such as Thermopylae or the Russo-Finnish Winter War. It also examines how we categorize and calculate likelihood of success and also what, after all, we mean by 'success'. Further, the volume considers how close or far from the target we should get, or expect to get, before claiming that a war is 'unjust', or immoral, and raises the issue of the destructiveness caused by defenders themselves.
This book will be of interest to students of just war theory, military ethics, statecraft, and international relations generally.
Contents
1. Introduction: Making Sense of "Likelihood of Success" in the Just War Tradition Part I: Likelihood of Success: Concept and Controversy 2. Worse Things Than Losing: Underdogs Defining Likelihood of Success 3. Likelihood of Success, the Science of War, and the False Security of a Technical Principle 4. Just War and Likelihood of Success: Wars of Necessity vs. Wars of Choice 5. What Should We Hope For? In Search of Reasonable Definitions of Success 6. From Likelihood of Success to Likely Consequences 7. Mixed Motives and the Likelihood of Success 8. A Reasonable Chance of Success and the (Low) Probability of Meeting All Just War Theory Precepts 9. Humanitarianism & Tranquilitas Ordinas in Jus Post Bellum Part II: Likelihood of Success: Applications and Cases 10. When You Can't Afford to Miss: Likelihood of Success and Discrimination in Cyberwarfare 11. Atomic Signaling: Exploring Likelihood of Success and Military Necessity through the Bargaining Model of War 12. Success in Battle—Failure in War 13. Just War Moral Reasoning, Golden-Rule Ethics, and the Politics of Rescue: Reassessing "Reasonable Chance of Success" in the Light of Geopolitical Evil, 14. Strategic Special Operations and the Likelihood of Success 15. Conclusion: David and Goliath
