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Full Description
This timely Handbook explores how the trajectory of technology can be predicted and strategically prepared for. It provides insight into the value and application of forecasting and roadmapping, covering foundational theories, method taxonomies and established approaches such as foresight and scenario planning.
Leading experts examine how the rise of data-driven methods, including patent analysis and bibliometrics, enables earlier identification of trends and innovations, as well as how emerging tools such as AI and machine learning are transforming the accuracy and responsiveness of forecasting. The Handbook presents two unique projects which outline the process of creating relevant technology roadmaps. Contributing authors also showcase outcomes from international collaborative projects, demonstrating how different forecasting tools and collaborative methods can enhance future decision-making.
The Handbook of Technological Forecasting and Roadmapping is a valuable resource for scholars and students of organisational innovation, the economics of innovation, industrial economics, technology and ICT, and science and technology studies. It is also beneficial for policymakers, regulators, government officials and technology managers looking to plan and anticipate future technological developments.
Contents
Contents
Foreword xxi
Scott W. Cunningham
Introduction: from foresight to impact, introducing forecasting and roadmapping in a transforming world 1
Marina Dabić �and Tugrul U. Daim
PART I INTRODUCTION TO TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT
1 The foundation of the general theory of scientific variability for technological evolution: technological forecasting and managerial implications 13
Mario Coccia
2 Uncertainities & methods of Futurology, Forecasting, Foresight, and Futures Research. Case study: artificial intelligence (AI) 33
Sahar Kousari and Sepehr Ghazinoory
3 How medical virtual agents shape individuals' behavioural activation systems: dealing with product intelligence and anthropomorphism, and implications for product design 50
Andrea Sestino, Luigi Nasta and Stefano Bresciani
4 Integrating technology foresight for problem-solving in European enterprises 65
Marzenna Anna Weresa, Arkadiusz Michał Kowalski and Małgorzata Stefania Lewandowska
5 Technology foresight toolbox: example from a global automotive supplier 90
Volker Grienitz
PART II TECHNOLOGY INTELLIGENCE BASED FORECASTING
6 Future applications of artificial intelligence in smart manufacturing: a bibliometric approach 110
Gordana Zeba, Marina Dabić �and Tugrul U. Daim
7 Transformation of solar energy technologies through the lens of topic modeling 152
Tugrul U. Daim, Marina Dabić, Amir Rahmani and Mehdi Zamani
8 Consumer behavioural analytics in metaverses using machine and deep learning: a literature review and research agenda 175
Pedro Mota Veiga, Sara Santos, Julien Diogo, João J. Ferreira and Cristina Fernandes
9 An integrated approach to social, technological, economic, environmental and ethical dimensions in AI-driven smart and sustainable mobility 207
Burcu Aracıoğlu, Haydar Yalçın and Tugrul U. Daim
10 Fintech and supply chain management: exploring financial stability dynamics through techmining and expert insights 227
Ali Erhan Zalluhoğlu, Dilek Demirhan, Türker Susmuş, Burcu Aracıoğlu, Şükrü Sertaç Çakı and Haydar Yalçın
11 Roadmapping the emergence of smartphone technologies using patent analysis: a technology convergence perspective 262
Yan Wang and Xin Li
PART III ROADMAPPING METHODS
12 Foresight insights from hindsight using retrospective roadmapping 283
Killian Manyuchi and Robert Phaal
13 Critical factors for the implementation of technology roadmapping in SMEs: the case of Trieste Coffee Cluster 305
Cinzia Battistella, Gianluca Murgia and Roberto Pillon
PART IV ROADMAPPING EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES
14 Technology roadmapping in e-commerce: the case study of Akinon e-commerce company 329
Edwin Garces, Hakan Örengül, Missem Karakurt, Mueyyed Garzuddin, Talha Yiğit Aktan, Tuğçe Sayın, Yunus Emre Kılıçaslan and Fayez Alsoubaie
15 A technology roadmap for a sustainable gaming industry 344
Tugrul U. Daim, İrem Düzdar, Ezgi Idil Mert, Zeynep Kiral, Fatma Meltem Nur Masmas, Murat Sen and Huzeyfe Omer Abdusselamoglu
16 Product roadmap for insurtech companies: the case of telematics 377
Evren Balcı, Hüseyin Ege Gökcan, Meltem Mutlu, Ömer Faruk Kutlu, Sena Yüzer, Angel Contreras Cruz and Tugrul U. Daim
17 Technology roadmap for the fintech industry 390
Gülin İdil S. Bolatan, Nilay Öcal, Sercan Ger, Seval Cirlak, Fatih Safa Aktaş, Yunus Emre Kuzu, İlayda Kargacı and İrem Nur Eryaş
18 Pharmaceutical technology roadmap 402
Denizhan Demirkol, Shahrzad Z.G. Vahdat, Sıla Yildirim, Dilara Özgür, Ramazan Dere, Fatma Cayvaz Parlak, Zeynep Çetinkale and Tugrul U. Daim
19 Yıldız Technopark product roadmap for AI companies: chatbot 421
Nihan Yıldırım, Tugrul U. Daim, Dilara Özyıldırım, Alper Yıldız, Hakan Turpcu, Gökhan Özbek, Hasan Hüseyin Çelebi, Özlem Genç, Arda Nusirevan Toprak and Şeymanur Usta
20 Last mile delivery and logistic industry roadmap 438
Arzu Karaman Akgül, Çağla Uçkan, Mehmet Vefa İlgün, Aykut Celep, Ahmet Hakan Parlak and Tugrul U. Daim
PART V ROADMAPPING FOR DISASTERS
21 A technology roadmap for sustainable energy infrastructure in case of natural disasters 452
Tugrul U. Daim, M. Özgür Kayalica, Üner Çolak, İrem Düzdar, Nihan Yıldırım, Gülin İdil S. Bolatan, Darya Amini, Denizhan Guven, Arda Korkmaz, Ali Elmas, Cafer Şutaşdemir, İlke Bişkin, Mehmet Kürşat Tek, Mustafa Ülker and Buğra Kocadağ
22 Technology roadmapping for resilient and mobile energy systems to sustain electricity continuity after earthquakes 472
M. Özgür Kayalica, Sermin Onaygil, Atakan Kiracı, Erdem Hayat, Furkan Koçaslan, Murat Doğukan Dolaz, Tamer Koç and Darya Amini
23 Technology roadmap for disaster response and recovery in energy systems 489
Tugrul U. Daim, Nihan Yıldırım, M. Özgür Kayalica, Gülin İdil S. Bolatan, İrem Düzdar, Darya Amini, Barış �Tekin, Sevgi As, Hüseyin Yildirim, Sevim Beçet, Talha Görücü and Denizhan Guven
Index 507
