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Full Description
Individuals and groups often find themselves in problematic situations not knowing what to do next. They may experience a sense of unease that things aren't quite right, with no clear path to a better future. This book shows how decision analysis and the social skills of the decision analyst can enable us to explore the future before having to live it. The author is a senior decision analyst sharing his lived experience with many clients in numerous private, public, and voluntary organisations. The book sets out a five-step process to choose, define, and assemble the ten key ingredients of any problem into one model. Changes to the ingredients representing possible futures provide new glimpses into the future, stimulate creativity and lead to new solutions. Readers will gain a sound theoretical foundation with an understanding of process consultancy skills and the types of problems for which decision analysis is appropriate.
Contents
Chapter summaries; Preface; Part I. The Technical Principles: 1. A decision-making framework; 2. The foundations of decision theory; 3. The language of numbers; 4. Values; 5. Trade-off weights; 6. Uncertainty and probability; Part I Epilogue; Part II. The Social Principles: 7. Decision conferences; 8. Behaviour in organisations; 9. Process consultancy; 10. Facilitation skills; 11. Group processes; Part II Epilogue; Part III. Socio-Technical Modelling: 12. Types of decision models; 13. Evaluate options; 14. Allocate resources; 15. Bargain and negotiate; 16. Choose and decide; 17. Managing risk; 18. Revise opinion; 19. Think strategically; Part III. Epilogue.
