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基本説明
The contributors provide three to five senarios and order them in terms of their respective likelihood with specific explanations.
Full Description
China has become an undisputed global phenomenon, yet twenty-five years ago, its remarkable accomplishments were largely unforeseen. In an ambitious effort to predict China's coming decades, this book explores not only the economic development that has been a key indicator of its success but the often veiled political, social, and international determinants that will be crucial. Leading scholars draw on their years of experience and on-the-ground understanding of current trends to make informed estimates of China's path, positing that its future may well hold neither threat nor collapse. All of the contributors provide a set of scenarios and order them in terms of likelihood, including the seven factors they have identified as central to charting China's future: the Communist Party, local electoral reforms and rule of law, the federalist possibility, social unrest, foreign policy orientations, Sino-American relations, and the Taiwan conundrum. This book is a must-read for anyone who wants to understand China as it rises in power on the world stage.
Contributions by: Jean-Pierre Cabestan, Jae Ho Chung, Bruce J. Dickson, Peter Hays Gries, Tao-chiu Lam, Yawei Liu, Gilbert Rozman, and Shiping Tang
Contents
Chapter 1: Forecasting China's Future: Scenarios, Uncertainties, and Determinants
Chapter 2: The Future of the Chinese Communist Party: Strategies of Survival and Prospects for Change
Chapter 3: The Rule of Law and Electoral Processes: Present and Future Forecasts
Chapter 4: The Federalist Possibility? Breaking the Chinese Exceptionalism
Chapter 5: Assessing the Odds against the Mandate of Heaven: Do the Numbers (on Instability) Really Matter?
Chapter 6: Projecting China's Foreign Policy: Determining Factors and Scenarios
Chapter 7: The Future of United States-China Relations: System, State, and Individual-Level Drivers
Chapter 8: The Taiwan Conundrum
Chapter 9: What Chinese Characteristics? Looking to the Past for Clues about the Future
