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基本説明
Elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability.
Full Description
Many historical processes exhibit recurrent patterns of change. Century-long periods of population expansion come before long periods of stagnation and decline; the dynamics of prices mirror population oscillations; and states go through strong expansionist phases followed by periods of state failure, endemic sociopolitical instability, and territorial loss. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov explore the dynamics and causal connections between such demographic, economic, and political variables in agrarian societies and offer detailed explanations for these long-term oscillations--what the authors call secular cycles. Secular Cycles elaborates and expands upon the demographic-structural theory first advanced by Jack Goldstone, which provides an explanation of long-term oscillations. This book tests that theory's specific and quantitative predictions by tracing the dynamics of population numbers, prices and real wages, elite numbers and incomes, state finances, and sociopolitical instability. Turchin and Nefedov study societies in England, France, and Russia during the medieval and early modern periods, and look back at the Roman Republic and Empire.
Incorporating theoretical and quantitative history, the authors examine a specific model of historical change and, more generally, investigate the utility of the dynamical systems approach in historical applications. An indispensable and groundbreaking resource for a wide variety of social scientists, Secular Cycles will interest practitioners of economic history, historical sociology, complexity studies, and demography.
Contents
Table of Units and Currencies ix Chapter 1: Introduction: The Theoretical Background 1 1.1 Development of Ideas about Demographic Cycles 1 1.2 A Synthetic Theory of Secular Cycles 6 1.3 Variations and Extensions 21 1.4 Empirical Approaches 29 Chapter 2: Medieval England: The Plantagenet Cycle (1150-1485) 35 2.1 Overview of the Cycle 35 2.2 The Expansion Phase (1150-1260) 47 2.3 Stagflation (1260-1315) 49 2.4 Crisis (1315-1400) 58 2.5 Depression (1400-1485) 69 2.6 Conclusion 77 Chapter 3: Early Modern England: The Tudor-Stuart Cycle (1485-1730) 81 3.1 Overview of the Cycle 81 3.2 Expansion (1485-1580) 87 3.3 Stagflation (1580-1640) 91 3.4 Crisis (1640-60) 97 3.5 Depression (1660-1730) 101 3.6 Conclusion 107 Appendix to Chapter 3 108 Chapter 4: Medieval France: The Capetian Cycle (1150-1450) 111 4.1 Overview of the Cycle 111 4.2 Expansion (1150-1250) 115 4.3 Stagflation (1250-1315) 117 4.4 Crisis (1315-65) 121 4.5 Depression (1365-1450) 129 4.6 Conclusion: "A Near Perfect Multi-secular Cycle" 141 Chapter 5: Early Modern France: The Valois Cycle (1450-1660) 143 5.1 Overview 143 5.2 Expansion (1450-1520) 147 5.3 Stagflation (1520-70) 149 5.4 Crisis (1570-1600) 153 5.5 A Case Study: The Norman Nobility 156 5.6 Depression (1600-1660) 169 5.7 Conclusion 174 Chapter 6: Rome: The Republican Cycle (350-30 BCE) 176 6.1 Overview of the Cycle 176 6.2 An Unusually Long Expansion (350-180 BCE) 185 6.3 Stagflation (180-130 BCE) 189 6.4 The Late Republican Crisis (130-30 BCE) 201 6.5 The End of the Disintegrative Trend 205 6.6 Conclusion 208 Chapter 7: Rome: The Principate Cycle (30 BCE-285 CE) 211 7.1 Overview of the Cycle 211 7.2 Expansion (27 BCE-96 CE) 224 7.3 Stagflation (96-165 CE) 229 7.4 Crisis (165-97 CE) 233 7.5 Depression (197-285 CE) 236 7.6 Conclusion 238 Chapter 8: Russia: The Muscovy Cycle (1460-1620) 240 8.1 The Fifteenth-Century Crisis 240 8.2 Expansion (1460-1530) 241 8.3 Stagflation (1530-65) 244 8.4 Crisis (1565-1615) 252 8.5 Conclusion 258 Chapter 9: Russia: The Romanov Cycle (1620-1922) 261 9.1 Expansion (1620-1800) 261 9.2 Stagflation (1800-1905) 274 9.3 Crisis (1905-22) 287 9.4 Conclusion 299 Chapter 10: General Conclusions 303 10.1 Population Numbers 303 10.2 Elite Dynamics 304 10.3 The State 306 10.4 Sociopolitical Instability 307 10.5 Are There General Laws of Historical Dynamics? 311 Acknowledgments 315 References Cited 317 Index 341
