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基本説明
Analyzing thirty-nine foreign-policy cases across nine administrations, the authors pinpoint factors likely to lead to either successful or failed decision making and suggest prescriptive measures to improve the process.
Full Description
Are good and bad outcomes significantly affected by the decision-making process itself? Indeed they are, in that certain decision-making techniques and practices limit the ability of policymakers to achieve their goals and advance the national interest. The success of policy often turns on the quality of the decision-making process. Mark Schafer and Scott Crichlow identify the factors that contribute to good and bad policymaking, such as the personalities of political leaders, the structure of decision-making groups, and the nature of the exchange between participating individuals. Analyzing thirty-nine foreign-policy cases across nine administrations and incorporating both statistical analyses and case studies, including a detailed examination of the decision to invade Iraq in 2003, the authors pinpoint the factors that are likely to lead to successful or failed decision making, and they suggest ways to improve the process. Schafer and Crichlow show how the staffing of key offices and the structure of central decision-making bodies determine the path of an administration even before topics are introduced.
Additionally, they link the psychological characteristics of leaders to the quality of their decision processing. There is no greater work available on understanding and improving the dynamics of contemporary decision making.
Contents
List of Tables and Figures Acknowledgments Part I. Groupthink and the Quality of the Foreign-Policy Decision-Making Process 1. Introduction 2. The Group and the Individual in Foreign-Policy Decision Making 3. The Decision-Making Model: The Interplay of Group Processes and Psychological Characteristics Part II. Case Studies in American Foreign-Policy Decision Making 4. Case Studies in Low-Quality Decision Making 5. Case Studies in High-Quality Decision Making Part III. Statistical Analyses 6. The Effect of Groupthink Versus High-Quality Decision Making on Outcomes 7. Individual-Level Factors Affecting the Quality of Decision Making Part IV. Conclusions 8. The 2003 War in Iraq: How Flawed Decision Making Led to Critical Failures 9. Groupthink Versus High-Quality Decision Making: Lessons and Prescriptions Appendix A. Cases Included in the Analysis Appendix B. Operational Definitions of Situational-Context Variables Appendix C. Operational Definitions of Group-Structural Variables Appendix D. Operational Definitions of Decision-Processing Variables Notes References Index
