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Full Description
An accessible guide to the natural rate of interest, why it is likely going up, and what that means for the future of the global economy and markets.
Ask most people who sets interest rates, and they'll say it's the central bank. At a fundamental level, though, decisions by the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and their peers around the world are constrained by the natural rate of interest. The natural rate - the interest rate that balances supply of saving and demand for investment, whilst keeping inflation low and employment high - has moved from academic obscurity to a central role in monetary policy, and the operation of the economy and financial markets.
For almost half a century from the 1970s to the 2010s, the natural rate in the US and other advanced economies fell. In the last decade, it has started to rise. In the years ahead, the cost of borrowing has further to climb. That shift from falling to rising borrowing costs reflects seismic shifts in demographics, technology, and geopolitics. In the years ahead, risk factors from war to artificial intelligence and climate change could accelerate its rise. For everyone from Ministers of Finance balancing the books to Wall Street titans making the next big bet, the shift from falling to rising borrowing costs has profound consequences. In a world where money is more expensive, the cost of managing it poorly gets higher.
In The Price of Money, the Bloomberg Economics team explain the evolution of the natural rate, the forces driving it, where it is headed, and what that means for everything from government debt to saving for retirement.
Contents
1: Jamie Rush;Tom Orlik;Stephanie Flanders: The Price of Money is Going Up
2: Jamie Rush;Tom Orlik: From Wicksell to Bernanke: A Brief History of the Natural Rate of Interest
3: Jamie Rush;Martin Ademmer: A New Model of the Natural Rate of Interest
4: Ana Andrade: Hard Times, Happy Days, and Electric Sheep: How Slowing Productivity Growth Dragged Down the Natural Rate of Interest, and the Fourth Industrial Revolution May Push It Up Again
5: Stuart Paul;David Wilcox: Demographic Destiny: How Baby Boom Savers Drove the Fall of the Natural Rate and Will Drive the Rise
6: Maeva Cousin;Jamie Rush: No More Free Lunch: Rising Debt Will Push Borrowing Costs Higher
7: Maeva Cousin;Jamie Rush: Temperature Rising: How Global Heating Will Drag the Natural Rate of Interest Down, and Investment in Net Zero Will Push It Up
8: Maeva Cousin;Dan Hanson;Eleonora Mavroeidi;Tom Orlik;Jamie Rush;Bhargavi Sakthivel;Jennifer Welch: The Return of History: How A Second Cold War Could Drive the Natural Rate Higher
9: Chang Shu;David Qu;Eric Zhu;Tom Orlik: China Shock: How China's Saving Impacts US Borrowing Costs
10: Ziad Daoud: The Problem with Petrodollars: How Cristiano Ronaldo, an Artificial Moon, and Flying Taxis in the Desert May Push US Interest Rates Higher
11: Alex Isakov: Russia's Revenge: How Sanctioned States Dodge the Weaponized Dollar
12: Selva Bahar Baziki;Adriana Dupita: The Rich Get Richer, the Rates Get Lower: How Rising Inequality Pushed the Natural Rate Lower and Artificial Intelligence Could Extend the Trend
13: Jamie Rush: The Era of Falling Rates Is Over
14: Jamie Rush;Dan Hanson;Maeva Cousin: Monetary Policy in an Age of Scarcity
15: Stephanie Flanders: A More Expensive World: What Does It All Mean?
