合理的意思決定の科学 Simply Rational : Decision Making in the Real World

著者名：Gigerenzer, Gerd

Oxford University Press（2015/03/03発売）

• 言語：ENG
• ISBN：9780199390076
• eISBN：9780199390090

Description

Statistical illiteracy can have an enormously negative impact on decision making. This volume of collected papers brings together applied and theoretical research on risks and decision making across the fields of medicine, psychology, and economics. Collectively, the essays demonstrate why the frame in which statistics are communicated is essential for broader understanding and sound decision making, and that understanding risks and uncertainty has wide-reaching implications for daily life. Gerd Gigerenzer provides a lucid review and catalog of concrete instances of heuristics, or rules of thumb, that people and animals rely on to make decisions under uncertainty, explaining why these are very often more rational than probability models. After a critical look at behavioral theories that do not model actual psychological processes, the book concludes with a call for a "heuristic revolution" that will enable us to understand the ecological rationality of both statistics and heuristics, and bring a dose of sanity to the study of rationality.

Table of Contents

Introduction1. How I Got Started Teaching Physicians and Judges Risk LiteracyPart I. The Art of Risk Communication2. Why Do Single Event Probabilities Confuse Patients?3. HIV Screening: Helping Clinicians Make Sense of Test Results4. Breast Cancer Screening Pamphlets Mislead WomenPart II. Health Statistics5. Helping Doctors and Patients Make Sense of Health Statistics6. Public Knowledge of Benefits of Breast and Prostate Cancer Screening in EuropePart III. Smart Heuristics7. Heuristic Decision Making 8. The Recognition Heuristic: A Decade of ResearchPart IV. Intuitions about Sports and Gender9. The Hot Hand Exists in Volleyball and Is Used for Allocation Decisions10. Stereotypes about Men's and Women's Intuitions: A Study of Two NationsPart V. Theory11. As-If Behavioral Economics: Neoclassical Economics in Disguise? 12. Personal Reflections on Theory and PsychologyReferencesIndex