Description
This handbook provides contributions by some of the world-leading experts in the field on recent phenomena and trends in transnational terrorism.
Based on the methodological approach of a trend-and-key factor analysis of transnational terrorism and processed on the virtual platform "Foresight Strategy Cockpit" (FSC), the volume seeks to examine what potential future variants of transnational terrorism may evolve. Focusing on the latest structural developments in the sphere of politically or religiously motivated violence, the handbook considers the tactical, strategic, and not least the systemic dimension of terrorism. Divided into seven thematic sections, the handbook’s contributions cover a wide range of issues, dealing among others with strategic and hybrid terrorism, the systemic dimension of extremist violence, prevalent actors, counter-narratives, the crime terror-nexus, the role of digitalization and the spiral dynamic between Islamist and right-wing terrorism. The expert contributions provide a condensed overview of current developments, structural linkages and important academic debates centering around transnational salafi-jihadi terrorism, but also right-wing terrorism and counter-terrorism. A key objective of the work is to make the effects of prevention/preemption, (de-) radicalization and (non-) intervention both transparent and assessable. As such, it contributes well-founded strategies, feasible solutions and options for policy-makers and counter-terrorism experts.
This volume will be of great interest to students of terrorism and counter-terrorism, political violence and security studies.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
Nicolas Stockhammer
PART I The Strategic and Systemic Dimension of Terrorism
2. Strategic Terrorism
Herfried Münkler
3. Geopolitical Game Changers and their Impact on Global Terrorism
Daniel Byman
4. The Systemic Dimension of Jihadist Violence: A Root Cause Analysis of Jihadist Terrorism
Alex P. Schmid
5. Jihadist Violence: New Terrorist Actors/Groups Emerging - Who Will be the Key Players in the Next Decade
Bruce Hoffman
6. From Networks to Social Identity: A Dialectical Model of Terrorism
Marc Sageman
7. The Atomization of Political Violence
Brian Michael Jenkins
8. The Case of Hybrid Terrorism–Systemic Lessons from recent European Plots
Nicolas Stockhammer
PART II Technology and Radicalization
9. The Emerging Terrorist Technological Landscape
Gary A. Ackerman
10. Online Territories of Terror: The Multi-Platform Communication Paradigm and the Information Ecology of the Web3 Era
Nico Prucha / Ali Fisher
11. The Virtualization of Terror: Violent Extremism on the Internet Today
Charlie Winter / Blyth Crawford
12. The Evolution of Hybrid Radicalization: From Small Group to Mass Phenomenon
Sophia Moskalenko
13. The Emergence of Decoupled Radicalization and Franchise Terrorist: McJIHAD
Olivier Roy
14. The Crime-Terror-Nexus in Europe and its Implication for Jihadist radicalization
Peter Neumann
15. Counter-Narratives
Behnam Heidenreuter
PART III Right-Wing Extremism and Stochastic Terrorism
16. Ideological Polarization and Societal Disruption
Herfried Münkler
17. The Current and Future Threat Posed by Islamist and Right-Wing Extremist Terrorism in Europe
Stefan Goertz
18. Generation Z and Terrorism
Carolin Görzig
19. Stochastic Terrorism: Mass Media Escalation Against Victim Groups as a Radicalization Platform for Terrorist Individual Perpetrators?
Karolin Schwarz
20. The Heightened Threat of U.S. Domestic Terrorism
Catrina Doxsee
21. Right-wing Extremists and State Deniers in Europe: Current Narratives, Trends and Actors
Stefan Goertz
PART IV Forecast, Trends, Scenarios and Tactics
22. How to Forecast and Predict Future Terrorist Warfare
Joshua Sinai
23. Recent Trends in International Terrorism and Their Impact on CT Ambitions
James J.F. Forest
24. Key Trends in Transnational Terrorism: A Software based Key Factor Foresight Analysis
Nicolas Stockhammer
25. Scenarios of Transnational Terrorism: Trends and Developments - A Fact-Based Threat Assessment
Colin Clarke
26. Foiled versus Launched Terror Plots: Some Lessons Learned
Petter Nesser
27. Hybrid Loans and Tactics of Jihadism: Will Hybridity Remain the Narrative of Convergent, Politically Motivated Violence?
Dirk Freudenberg
28. Terrorism and Hybrid Threats: Analyzing Common Characteristics and Constraints for Counter-Measures
Giray Sadik
PART V Political Islam, Jihadism, Psychology and Counter-Terrorism
29. Legalistic Islam: The Transition from Political Islam to Jihadism
Nina Scholz / Heiko Heinisch
30. Jihadism and True Islam: Discourses and Realities
Rüdiger Lohlker
31. Jihadism in the West: A Post-Caliphate Transitory Phase
Lorenzo Vidino
32. Becoming a Jihadist: A Psychoanalytical Perspective
Jean-Luc Vannier
33. Understanding the Motivation of "Lone-Wolf" Terrorists: The "Bathtub" Model
Boaz Ganor
34. Evolving Perspectives on Psychopathology and Terrorism
Randy Borum
35. European Approaches to Risk Assessment of Terrorist Offenders
Andrew Silke
36. A Model for Countering Violent Extremism and Promoting Disengagement from Terrorism
Joshua Sinai
PART VI Covid-19, Resilience and Terrorism
37. Crises and Catastrophes, Security and Resilience: On the Significance of Finding Definitions for Security Policy
Herfried Münkler
38. Covid-19 and Global Terrorism Pandemics
Boaz Ganor
39. The False Promise of Salafi-Jihadist: Rhetoric and the Response to Covid-19
Seth G. Jones
40. The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: Reassessing the Evidence
Sam Mullins
41. A Legacy of Disorder, Desperation and Defiance: The Possible Effects of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the Future Course of Terrorism
Brian Michael Jenkins
42. Hybrid Jihad: A Trend Scenario for Transnational Terrorism
Nicolas Stockhammer
43. Terrorist Threats Post Covid-19
Raffaello Pantucci
PART VII Afghanistan, Al-Qaeda and Beyond
44. The Security Situation in Afghanistan and the Implications for Global Terrorism
Herfried Münkler
45. Afghanistan under Taliban Rule: Consequences for Global Security and Terrorism Against the West
Seth G. Jones
46. Afghanistan after the Withdrawal of the West: The Taliban, al-Qaeda, and IS- K
Guido Steinberg / Aljoscha Albrecht
47. Global Jihad: Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State’s Struggle for Power and Global Dominance
Katherine Zimmerman
48. Al-Qaeda - 20 years after 9/11
Bruce Hoffman
49. The Taliban-al-Qaeda Nexus: Brothers in Arms
Nico Prucha / Ali Fisher
