Description
In this book, senior scholars and a new generation of analysts present different applications of recent advances linking beliefs and decision-making, in the area of foreign policy analysis with strategic interactions in world politics.
Divided into five parts, Part 1 identifies how the beliefs in the cognitive operational codes of individual leaders explain the political decisions of states. In Part 2, five chapters illustrate progress in comparing the operational codes of individual leaders, including Vladimir Putin of Russia, three US presidents, Bolivian president Evo Morales, Sri Lanka’s President Chandrika Kumaratunga, and various leaders of terrorist organizations operating in the Middle East and North Africa. Part 3 introduces a new Psychological Characteristics of Leaders (PsyCL) data set containing the operational codes of US presidents from the early 1800s to the present. In Part 4, the focus is on strategic interactions among dyads and evolutionary patterns among states in different regional and world systems. Part 5 revisits whether the contents of the preceding chapters support the claims about the links between beliefs and foreign policy roles in world politics.
Richly illustrated and with comprehensive analysis Operational Code Analysis and Foreign Policy Roles will be of interest to specialists in foreign policy analysis, international relations theorists, graduate students, and national security analysts in the policy-making and intelligence communities.
Table of Contents
Part 1: Beliefs and Roles in World Politics
1. The Interface between Beliefs and Roles in World Politics
Stephen G. Walker and Mark Schafer
2. The Development of Foreign Policy Roles: Beliefs and Complex Adaptive Systems
Stephen G. Walker
Part 2: The Operational Codes of World Leaders
3. Revisiting the Operational Code of Vladimir Putin
Mark Schafer, Didara Nurmanova, and Stephen G. Walker
4. Deciphering Deadly Minds in Their Native Language: The Operational Codes and Formation Patterns of Militant Organizations in the Middle East and North Africa
Sercan Canbolat
5. Operational Code Analysis and Civil Conflict Severity
Gary E. Smith
6. Policy Documents and the Beliefs of Foreign Policy Decision-makers: A Next Step in Operational Code Analysis
Femke E. Bakker and Niels van Willigen
7. One Step Forward, Two Steps Back: The Steering Effects of Operational Code Beliefs in the Chilean-Bolivian Rivalry
Consuelo Thiers
Part 3: The Psychological Characteristics of US Presidents
8. Psychological Correlates and US Conflict Behavior: The PsyCL Data Set
Mark Schafer, Stephen G. Walker, Clayton Besaw, Paul Gill, and Gary E. Smith
9. Operational Code Beliefs and Threat Perceptions by US Presidents
Collin J. Kazazis
10. Presidential Personalities and Operational Codes: Learning Effects and Midterm Congressional Election Results
Joshua E. Lambert, Mark Schafer, Stephen G. Walker and Collin Kazazis
11. US Presidential Belief Systems and the Evolution of Peace in the International System
Stephen G. Walker, Mark Schafer, Gary E. Smith, and Collin J. Kazazis
Part 4: Computational Models of Foreign Policy Roles
12. Binary Role Theory and the Evolution of Cooperation in World Politics
Stephen G. Walker, Kai He and Huiyun Feng
13. Binary Role Theory and the Operational Code Analysis of Grand Strategies: Can Balancing Work?
B. Gregory Marfleet and Stephen G. Walker
14. Operational Code Analysis: A Method for Measuring Strategic Culture
Seyed Hamidreza Serri
15. An Operational Code Analysis of Foreign Policy Roles in US-Iran Strategic Dyads
Stephen G. Walker and Akan Malici
Part 5: Beyond Beliefs in World Politics
16. Operational Codes and Foreign Policy Roles: Conceptual Insights and Empirical Results
Stephen G. Walker and Mark Schafer
