Description
The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions.The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field.- Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications- Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field- Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making- Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages
Table of Contents
Part I: Setting the scene1. Introduction: Why S2S?2. Weather forecasting: What sets the forecast horizon?3. Weather within Climate: Sub-seasonal predictability of tropical daily rainfall characteristics4. Identifying wave processes associated with predictability across time scales: An empirical normal mode approachPart II: Sources of S2S Predictability5. The Madden-Julian Oscillation6. Extratropical sub-seasonal–to–seasonal oscillations and multiple regimes: The dynamical systems view7. Tropical-Extratropical Interactions and Teleconnections8. Land surface processes relevant to S2S prediction9. Midlatitude Meso-scale Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction and Its Relevance to S2S Prediction10. The role of sea ice in subseasonal predictability11. Sub-seasonal Predictability and the StratospherePart III: S2S Modeling and Forecasting12. Forecast system design, configuration, complexity13. Ensemble generation: the TIGGE and S2S ensembles14. GCMs with Full Representation of Cloud Microphysics and Their MJO Simulation15. Forecast recalibration and multi-model combination16. Forecast verification for S2S time scalesPart IV: S2S Applications17. Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Weather Extremes18. Pilot experiences in using seamless forecasts for early action: Ready-Set-Go approach in the Red Cross19. Communication and dissemination of forecasts and engaging user communities20. Seamless prediction of monsoon onset and active/break phases21. Lessons learned in 25 years informing sectoral decisions with probabilistic climate forecasts22. Predicting climate impacts on health at sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales
