Description
The highly acclaimed The Future Population of the World contains the most authoritative assessment available of the extent to which population is likely to grow over the next 50 to 100 years. The book provides a thorough analysis of all the components of population change and translates these factors into a series of projections for the population of the world's regions. This revised and updated version incorporates completely new scenario projections based on updating starting values and revised assumptions, plus several methodological improvements. It also contains the best currently available information on global trends in AIDS mortality and the first ever fully probabilistic world population projections. The projections, given up to 2100, add important additional features to those of the UN and the World Bank: they show the impacts of alternative assumptions for all three components (mortality and migration, as well as fertility); they explicitly take into account possible environmental limits to growth; and, for the first time, they define confidence levels for global populations. Combining methodological innovation with overviews of the most recent data and literature, this updated edition of The Future Population of the World is sure to conform its reputation as the most comprehensive and essential publication in the field.
Table of Contents
List of IllustrationsForewordPrefaceIntroductionContributorsPart I: Why Another Set of Global Population Projections?1. Long-range Global Population Projections:Lessons LearnedTomas Frejka2. Alternative Approaches to Population ProjectionWolfgang Lutz, Joshua R Goldstein, Christopher PrinzPart II: Future Fertility in Developing Countries3. A Regional Review of Fertility Trends in Developing Countries: 1960 to 1995John Cleland4. Reproductive Preferences and Future Fertility in Developing CountriesCharles F West085. Population Policies and Family-Planning in Southeast AsiaMercedes B Conception6. Fertility in China: Past, Present, ProspectsGrifith Feeney Part III: Future Mortality in Developing Countries 7. Mortality Trends in Developing Countries: A SurveyBirgitta Bucht 8. Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa: Trends and ProspectsMichel Garenne9. Global Trends in AIDS MortalityJohn Bongaarts10. How Many People Can Be Fed on Earth?Gerhard h' Heilig Part IV: Future Fertility and Mortality in Industrialized Countries 25111. Future Reproductive Behavior in Industrialized CountriesWolfgang Lutz12. The Future of Mortality at Older Ages in Developed CountriesJames W Vaupel and Hans Lundstrom Part V: The Future of Intercontinental Migration 13. Migration to and from Developing Regions: A Review of Past TrendsHania Zlotnik 14. Spatial and Economic Factors in Future South-North MigrationSture 0berg Part VI: Projections 15. World Population Scenarios for the 21st CenturyWolfgang Lutz, Warren Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov, Anne Goujon 16. Probabilistic Population Projections Based on Expert OpinionWolfgang Lutz, Warren Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov 17. Epilogue: Dilemmas in Population StabilizationWolfgang Lutz Appendix Tables References Index
