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"The book is intelligent and informative. Investors should find it particularly interesting." — Financial Times
The future is uncertain but for one thing: the global economy is in disarray. Investors, companies and governments must rethink their approach in light of raging inflation, the ongoing climate crisis and an ageing population. In addition, they have to deal with the highest mountain of debt ever accrued in peacetime, disruptive innovations and the effects of multi-globalisation. So much is happening simultaneously, making it difficult to distinguish the big waves from the small hypes. Which economic developments are here to stay and which are transient? How will interest rates evolve? Which emerging countries will become tomorrow's global powers? Which sectors offer the most opportunities? Macroeconomist Koen De Leus and market strategist Philippe Gijsels take a deep dive into the inner workings of our economy. They identify the five major trends that will dominate our lives and our money over the next 30 years. With in-depth analyses and concrete advice, they offer guidance, reveal connections and temper alarmism. The New World Economy in 5 Trends shows how you can surf global megatrends and successfully invest in our changing reality.
Contents
Why we are at a tipping point 7
Introduction 15
One trend to rule them all 49
1
Innovation & productivity
The productivity boost 68
Characteristics of the digital revolution 80
New technologies & productivity acceleration 102
The impact of Covid-19 114
The energy transition 122
2
Climate
War and energy 138
Climate risks undermine growth 152
Economic disaster or opportunity? 157
Winners and losers 168
Inflation, interest rates and debt 176
3
Multiglobalisation
Why globalisation matters 196
From globalisation to deglobalisation 203
Globalisation in traded goods at its peak 208
Globalisation is fragile 213
The decoupling 239
Multiglobalisation 256
The price of deglobalisation 263
4
Debt
Developed countries' mountain of debt 280
Emerging countries' mountain of debt 292
Lessons learned from the past 304
Finding a solution to our debts 314
5
Ageing
Demographic transition 338
Impact on growth and productivity 356
Impact on interest rates and inflation 375
Impact on the stock market and real estate market 380
Epilogue 405
Abbreviations and explanations 411
Endnotes 413
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