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Full Description
Social and natural scientists often are called upon to produce, or participate, in the pro duction of forecasts. This volume assembles essays that (a) describe the organizational and political context of applied forecasting, (b) review the state-of-the-art for many fore casting models and methods, and (c) discuss issues of predictability, the implications of forecaSt errors, and model construction, linkage and verification. The essays should be of particular interest to social and natural scientists concerned with forecasting large-scale systems. This project had its origins in discussions of social forecasts and forecasting method ologies initiated a few years ago by several social and natural science members of the Social Science Research Council's Committee on Social Indicators. It became appar ent in these discussions that certain similar problems were confronted in forecasting large-scale systems-be they social or natural. In response, the Committee hypothesized that much could be learned through more extended and systematic interchanges among social and natural scientists focusing on the formal methodologies applied in forecasting. To put this conjecture to the test, the Committee sponsored a conference at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, on June 10-13, 1984, on forecasting in the social and natural sciences. The conference was co-chaired by Committee members Kenneth C. Land and Stephen H. Schneider representing, respectively, the social and natural science mem bership of the Committee. Support for the conference was provided by a grant to the Council from the Division of Social and Economic Science of the National Science Foundation.
Contents
Forecasting in the Social and Natural Sciences: An Overview and Analysis of Isomorphisms.- I: Forecasting Contexts.- The Social Forecasting Industry.- Forecasts in Urban Transportation Planning: Uses, Methods, and Dilemmas.- Forecasting Errors: The Importance of the Decision-Making Context.- The Delphi Technique and Judgmental Forecasting.- II: Current Developments in Techniques and Models.- Econometric Forecasting: A Brief Survey of Current and Future Techniques.- A Survey of Census Bureau Population Projection Methods.- Forecasting Health Status Changes in an Aging U.S. Population: Assessment of the Current Status and some Proposals.- Recent Developments in Technological Forecasting.- III: Predictability, Forecast Errors, and Model Identification and Linkage.- The Predictability of Weather and Climate.- Errors in Forecasting Social Phenomena.- Forecasting the Impact of Climate on Food Systems: Model Testing and Model Linkage.- Modeling Economic-Demographic Linkages: A Study of National and Regional Models.- Scale Relationships in the Interactions of Climate, Ecosystems, and Societies.
