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Full Description
The European economy is emerging from its deepest recession since the 1930s. This volume, which brings together economic analysis from the European Commission services, explains how swift policy response avoided a financial meltdown; but turning the ongoing recovery into sustained growth requires action on five challenges: boosting potential output, enhancing labour market flexibility, preparing fiscal consolidation, facilitating intra-EU adjustment, and unwinding global imbalances. Europe also needs an improved co-ordinated crisis-management framework to help it respond to any similar situations that may arise in the future.
Economic Crisis in Europe shows that the beginnings of such a crisis-management framework are emerging, building on existing institutions and legislation and complemented by new initiatives. Naturally, initial EU policy efforts, such as fiscal stimulus, focused on crisis control and mitigation. But first steps have also been taken to redesign financial regulation and supervision with crisis prevention in mind. The design of crisis resolution policies is now becoming a main task. While any premature withdrawal of policy stimulus should be avoided, exit strategies should be ready for implementation, embedded in a broader policy framework that also includes growth-enhancing structural reforms.
Contents
Executive Summary 1 A crisis of historic proportions 2 Vast policy challenges 3 A strong call on EU coordination PART I Anatomy of the crisis 91 Root causes of the crisis 1.1 Introduction 1.2 A chronology of the main events 1.3 Global forces behind the crisis 2 The crisis from a historical perspective 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Great crises in the past 2.3 The policy response then and now 2.4 Lessons from the past PART II Economic consequences of the crisis 1 Impact on actual and potential growth 1.1 Introduction 1.2 The impact on economic activity 1.3 The impact of the crisis on potential growth 2 Impact on labour market and employment 2.1. Introduction 2.2 Recent developments 2.3 Labour market expectations 2.4 A comparison with recent recessions 3 Impact on budgetary positions 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Tracking developments in fiscal deficits 3.3 Tracking public debt developments 3.4 Fiscal stress and sovereign risk spreads 3.5 Sustainability effects 4 Impact on external imbalances and competitiveness 4.1 Introduction 4.2 A symmetric shock with asymmetric implications 4.3 The role of initial conditions 4.4 The ongoing adjustment 4.5 Implications for the euro area 5 Impact on global imbalances 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Sources of global imbalances 5.3 Global imbalances since the crisis 5.4 Implications for the EU economy PART III Policy responses 1 A primer on financial crisis policies 1.1 Introduction 1.2 The EU crisis policy framework 1.3 The importance of EU coordination 2 Crisis control and mitigation 2.1 Introduction2.2 Banking support 2.3 Macroeconomic policies 2.4 Structural policies 3 Crisis resolution and prevention 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Crisis resolution policies 3.3 Crisis prevention 4 Policy challenges ahead 4.1 Introduction 4.2 The pursuit of crisis resolution 4.3 The role of EU coordination.
