基本説明
The book introduces the concept of a perfect forecasting rule that generates rational expectations in the classical sense, thus reconciling the traditional view with behaviorist approaches.
Full Description
Recently economists have more and more focussed on scenarios in which agents' views of the world may be erroneous.
These notes introduce the concept of perfect forecasting rules which provide best least-squares predictions along the evolution of an economic system.
The framework for nonparametric adaptive learning schemes is developed and it is argued that plausible learning schemes should aim at estimating a perfect forecasting rule taking into account the correct feedback structure of an economy.
A link is provided between the traditional rational-expectations view and recent behavioristic approaches.
Contents
Economic Systems With Expectations Feedback.- Adaptive Learning in Linear Models.- Economic Models Subject to Stationary Noise.- Nonparametric Adaptive Learning.- Stochastic Exchange Economies.- Heterogeneous Beliefs in a Financial Market.
