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Full Description
This book is about elicitation: the facilitation of the quantitative expression of subjective judgement about matters of fact, interacting with subject experts, or about matters of value, interacting with decision makers or stakeholders. It offers an integrated presentation of procedures and processes that allow analysts and experts to think clearly about numbers, particularly the inputs for decision support systems and models. This presentation encompasses research originating in the communities of structured probability elicitation/calibration and multi-criteria decision analysis, often unaware of each other's developments.
Chapters 2 through 9 focus on processes to elicit uncertainty from experts, including the Classical Method for aggregating judgements from multiple experts concerning probability distributions; the issue of validation in the Classical Method; the Sheffield elicitation framework; the IDEA protocol; approaches following the Bayesian perspective; themain elements of structured expert processes for dependence elicitation; and how mathematical methods can incorporate correlations between experts.
Chapters 10 through 14 focus on processes to elicit preferences from stakeholders or decision makers, including two chapters on problems under uncertainty (utility functions), and three chapters that address elicitation of preferences independently of, or in absence of, any uncertainty elicitation (value functions and ELECTRE). Two chapters then focus on cross-cutting issues for elicitation of uncertainties and elicitation of preferences: biases and selection of experts.
Finally, the last group of chapters illustrates how some of the presented approaches are applied in practice, including a food security case in the UK; expert elicitation in health care decision making; an expert judgement based method to elicit nuclear threat risks in US ports; risk assessment in a pulp and paper manufacturer in the Nordic countries; and elicitation of preferences for crop planning in a Greek region.
Contents
Elicitation: State of the Art and Science.- Elicitation in the Classical Model.- Validation in the Classical Model.- SHELF: The Sheffield Elicitation Framework.- IDEA for Uncertainty Quantification.- Elicitation and Calibration: A Bayesian Perspective.- Constructing Subjective Probability Distributions with Data: An Empirical Bayes Approach.- Eliciting Multivariate Uncertainty from Experts: Considerations and Approaches Along the Expert Judgement Process.- Combining Judgments from Correlated Experts.- Utility Elicitation.- Elicitation in Target-Oriented Utility.- Multiattribute Value Elicitation.- Disaggregation Approach to Value Elicitation.- Eliciting Multi-Criteria Preferences: ELECTRE Models.- Individual and Group Biases in Value and Uncertainty Judgments.- The Selection of Experts for (Probabilistic) Expert Knowledge Elicitation.- Eliciting Probabilistic Judgments for Integrating Decision Support Systems.- Expert Elicitation to Inform Health Technology Assessment.- Expert Judgement Based Nuclear Threat Assessment for Vessels Arriving in the US.- Risk Assessment using Group Elicitation: Case Study on Start-up of a New Logistics System.- Group Decision Support for Ecology Economics: A Case Study to Guide the Process of Preferences' Elicitation.
