Full Description
This book lays out a foundation and taxonomy for Behavioral Decision Analysis, featuring representative work across various domains. Traditional research in the domain of Decision Analysis has focused on the design and application of logically consistent tools to support decision makers during the process of structuring problem complexity, modeling uncertainty, generating predictions, eliciting preferences, and, ultimately, making better decisions. Two commonly held assumptions are that the decision maker's cognitive belief system is fully accessible and that this system can be understood and formalized by trained analysts. However, in past years, an active line of research has emerged studying instances in which such assumptions may not hold. This book unites this community under the common theme of Behavioral Decision Analysis. The taxonomy used in this book categorizes research based on task focus (prediction or decision) and behavioral level (individual or group). Two theoretical lenses that lie at the interface between (1) normative and descriptive research, and (2) normative and prescriptive research are introduced. The book then proceeds to highlight representative works across the two lenses focused on individual and group-level decision making. Featuring various methodologies and applications, the book serves as a reference for researchers, students, and professionals across different disciplines with a common interest in Behavioral Decision Analysis.
Contents
Behavioral Decision Analysis - Past, Present and Future.- Behavioral Decision Research: Descriptive and Prescriptive Perspectives.- Behavioral Biases in the Uncertainty Quantification Process.- Analyzing Decisions Under Uncertainty: Simple Tools Of the Heathens.- Should an Analyst Share Calibration Information with Experts?.- The Role of Environmental Instability in Detecting and Responding to Signals of Impending Regime Shifts.- The Social Psychology of the Wisdom of Crowds.- Predicting Behavior in Games: Loss Aversion vs. Rank Dependent Utility vs. Range Utility Theory.- Consequences of Missing Objectives in Applications of Multiattribute Utility Analysis.- "When Are We Willing to Wait? Prescriptive Challenges in Evaluating Intertemporal Outcomes".- The near-miss bias.- Behavioral challenges in practice when dealing with public environmental decision problems.- Team decision making.
