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Full Description
This book presents a consistent methodology for making decisions under uncertain conditions, as is almost always the case. Tools such as value of information and value of flexibility are explored as a means to make more complex and nuanced decisions.
The book develops the complete formalism for assessing the value of acquiring information with two novel approaches. Firstly, it integrates the fuzzy characteristics of data, and secondly develops a methodology for assessing data acquisition actions that optimize the value of projects from a holistic perspective. The book also discusses the formalism for including flexibility in the project decision assessment. Practical examples of oil- and gas-related decision problems are included and discussed to facilitate the learning process.
This book provides valuable advice and case studies applicable to engineers, researchers, and graduate students, particularly in the oil and gas industry and pharmaceutic industry.
Contents
Chapter 1. Decision-making: Concepts, Principles, and Uncertainty.- Chapter 2. Utility Theory.- Chapter 3. Probability.- Chapter 4. Probabilistic Evaluation of Uncertainties: Monte Carlo Method.- Chapter 5. Assessing the Importance of the Uncertainties: Design of Experiments.- Chapter 6. Fuzzy Logic.- Chapter 7. Uncertainty, data acquisition and Value of Information.- Chapter 8. The value of flexibility - Real Options.- Chapter 9. Case studies for the Value of Information and Flexibility in the oil and gas industry.
