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Full Description
The book offers a review of what science has to say about climate change, from 800,000 years ago to the next glaciation, including an analysis of its effects on past human societies. Critical of the IPCC's one-sided version of climate change, the book highlights the importance of natural factors in addition to the suggested anthropogenic effects. It also evaluates the role of greenhouse gases in climate change from the distant past to the present day, and presents detailed evidence of periodical changes in solar activity associated with climate changes in the past.
Based on published scientific literature and written to be easily understood by non-specialists, the book includes multiple specially created illustrations supporting the scientific arguments. This one-stop reference resource is intended for graduate students and general readers with some scientific background who are interested in the climate science not well reflected in other books and IPCC reports and only available in specialized journals. It is a book designed to foster scientific debate on a question of global interest.
Contents
1 Introduction
The grounds for concern about Modern Global Warming
References
2 The Glacial Cycle
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Milankovitch Theory
2.2.1 Eccentricity
2.2.2 Obliquity
2.2.3 Precession
2.2.4 Modern interpretation of Milankovitch Theory
2.3 Problems with Milankovitch Theory
2.3.1 The Mid-Pleistocene transition
2.3.2 The 100-kyr problem
2.3.3 The causality problem
2.3.4 The asymmetry problem
2.3.5 The 41-kyr problem
2.4 Evidence that interglacial pacing does not follow a 100-kyr cycle
2.5 Evidence that obliquity, and not precession, sets the pacing of interglacials
2.5.1 Obliquity controlled glaciations before the Mid-Pleistocene Transition
2.5.2 Interstadials are still under obliquity control
2.5.3 Temperature shows a clear response to obliquity-linked changes in 70-90o insolation
2.5.4 Temperature responds poorly to precession-linked changes in insolation
2.5.5 Temperature shows better phase agreement with obliquity
2.5.6 Temperature changes almost perfectly match obliquity changes
2.5.7 Interglacials show a duration consistent with obliquity cycles
2.5.8 Obliquity-paced interglacials solve all Milankovitch Theory problems
2.6 The 100-kyr ice cycle.
2.7 Interglacial determination for the past million years
2.8 Summer energy as the relevant insolation forcing
2.9 Interglacials of atypical duration
2.10 Role of obliquity in the glacial cycle
2.11 Role of CO2 in the glacial cycle
2.12 Conclusions
References
3 The Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycle
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations
3.3 Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations in the Antarctic record.
3.4 Does the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle have a periodicity?
3.5 Conditions for the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle
3.6 Consensus Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle theory and challenges
3.7 Mechanistic explanation of the Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle
3.8 Tidal cycles as an explanation for Dansgaard-Oeschger triggering mechanism
3.9 Conclusions
References
4 Holocene climatic variability
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Holocene general climate trend
4.3 The controversial role of greenhouse gases during the Holocene
4.4 The Holocene Climatic Optimum
4.5 The Mid-Holocene Transition and the end of the African Humid Period
4.6 The Neoglacial period
4.7 Holocene climate variability
4.8 Bond events and other Abrupt Climatic Events
4.9 Holocene millennial cycles
4.10 Conclusions
References
5 The 2500-year Bray cycle
5.1 Introduction
5.2 The biological 2500-year climate cycle
5.3 The glaciological 2500-year climate cycle
5.4 The atmospheric 2500-year climate cycle
5.5 The oceanic 2500-year climate cycle
5.6 The hydrological 2500-year climate cycle
5.7 The temperature 2500-year cycle
5.8 The solar variability 2500-year cycle
5.9 2300-year Hallstatt versus 2500-year Bray
5.10 The solar-climate relationship
5.11 Solar variability effect on climate
5.12 Conclusions
References
6 The effect of abrupt climate change on human societies of the past
6.1 Introduction
6.2 The solar minima of the 2500-yr Bray cycle
6.3 The 10.3 kyr event. The Boreal Oscillation.
6.4 The 8.2 kyr climate complex
6.5 The 7.7 kyr event. The Boreal/Atlantic transition
6.6 The 5.2 kyr event. The Mid-Holocene Transition and the start of the Neoglacial period
6.7 The 2.8 kyr event. The Sub-Boreal/Sub-Atlantic Minimum.
6.8 The 0.5 kyr event. The Little Ice Age.
6.9 Climatic effects of solar grand minima.
6.10 Conclusions
References
7 The elusive 1500-year Holocene cycle
7.1 Introduction
7.2 What must we expect of a Holocene 1500-year cycle?
7.3 The 1500-year periodicity during the Holocene
7.4 The oceanic 1500-year cycle
7.5 The atmospheric 1500-year cycle
7.6 The 4.2 kyr event
7.7 Storminess, drift ice and tidal effects
7.8 Ending the confusion about the 1500-year cycle
7.9 Conclusions
References
8 Centennial to millennial solar cycles
8.1 Introduction
8.2 The millennial Eddy solar cycle
8.3 The 210-year de Vries solar cycle
8.4 The 88-year Gleissberg solar cycle
8.5 Other solar periodicities
8.6 The 100-year Feynman and 50-year Pentadecadal solar cycles
8.7 Solar cycles interrelation
8.8 Conclusions
References
9 Greenhouse gases and climate change
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Towards a greenhouse theory of climate
9.3 Past atmospheric changes and climate evolution
9.3.1 The Faint Sun Paradox
9.3.2 Phanerozoic climate
9.3.3 Earth's proposed thermostat
9.3.4 Cenozoic climate
9.3.5 Phanerozoic climatic cycles
9.4 Radiative forcing and anthropogenic effect
9.5 Climate feedbacks
9.6 The CO2 hypothesis of climate change
9.7 Climate change attribution
9.8 Conclusions
References
10 Natural climate change mechanisms
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Length-of-day and climate
10.3 Solar signal pathways
10.4 Solar control of El Niño Southern Oscillation
10.5 Solar control of global climate
10.6 Volcanic effects on climate and climatic effects on volcanism
10.7 The 50-70-year oscillation and the Stadium Wave hypothesis
10.8 Conclusions
References
11 Modern Global Warming
11.1 Introduction
11.2 Modern Global Warming is consistent with Holocene climatic cycles
11.3 Modern Global Warming is within Holocene variability
11.4 Modern Global Warming coincides with an increase in solar activity
11.5 Modern Global Warming displays an unusual cryosphere response
11.6 Extremely unusual CO2 levels during the last quarter of Modern Global Warming
11.7 The relationship between CO2 levels and temperature during Modern Global Warming
11.8 Uniform variation in sea level during Modern Global Warming
11.9 Modern Global Warming and the CO2 hypothesis
11.10 Modern Global Warming attribution
11.11 Conclusions
References
12 21st century climate change
12.1 Introduction
12.2 Changes in CO2 emissions and atmospheric levels.
12.3 Fossil fuel changes.
12.4 Changes in solar activity.
12.5 A mid-21st century solar grand minimum is highly improbable
12.6 Changes in global surface average temperature anomaly.
12.7 Consequences for Arctic sea ice
12.8 Consequences for sea-level rise
12.9 Other climate change consequences for the 21st century.
12.10 Projections
References
13 The next glaciation
13.1 Introduction
13.2 Interglacial evolution
13.3 Studying the future by looking at the past.
13.4 MIS 11c is a poor Holocene analog
13.5 The long interglacial hypothesis
13.6 The fat tail of anthropogenic CO2 adjustment time
13.7 Glacial inception in the Holocene
13.8 The next glaciation
13.9 Conclusions
References
