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Full Description
Learn traditional and cutting-edge machine learning (ML) and deep learning techniques and best practices for time series forecasting, including global forecasting models, conformal prediction, and transformer architectures
Key Features
Apply ML and global models to improve forecasting accuracy through practical examples
Enhance your time series toolkit by using deep learning models, including RNNs, transformers, and N-BEATS
Learn probabilistic forecasting with conformal prediction, Monte Carlo dropout, and quantile regressions
Purchase of the print or Kindle book includes a free eBook in PDF format
Book DescriptionPredicting the future, whether it's market trends, energy demand, or website traffic, has never been more crucial. This practical, hands-on guide empowers you to build and deploy powerful time series forecasting models. Whether you're working with traditional statistical methods or cutting-edge deep learning architectures, this book provides structured learning and best practices for both.
Starting with the basics, this data science book introduces fundamental time series concepts, such as ARIMA and exponential smoothing, before gradually progressing to advanced topics, such as machine learning for time series, deep neural networks, and transformers. As part of your fundamentals training, you'll learn preprocessing, feature engineering, and model evaluation. As you progress, you'll also explore global forecasting models, ensemble methods, and probabilistic forecasting techniques.
This new edition goes deeper into transformer architectures and probabilistic forecasting, including new content on the latest time series models, conformal prediction, and hierarchical forecasting. Whether you seek advanced deep learning insights or specialized architecture implementations, this edition provides practical strategies and new content to elevate your forecasting skills.What you will learn
Build machine learning models for regression-based time series forecasting
Apply powerful feature engineering techniques to enhance prediction accuracy
Tackle common challenges like non-stationarity and seasonality
Combine multiple forecasts using ensembling and stacking for superior results
Explore cutting-edge advancements in probabilistic forecasting and handle intermittent or sparse time series
Evaluate and validate your forecasts using best practices and statistical metrics
Who this book is forThis book is ideal for data scientists, financial analysts, quantitative analysts, machine learning engineers, and researchers who need to model time-dependent data across industries, such as finance, energy, meteorology, risk analysis, and retail. Whether you are a professional looking to apply cutting-edge models to real-world problems or a student aiming to build a strong foundation in time series analysis and forecasting, this book will provide the tools and techniques you need. Familiarity with Python and basic machine learning concepts is recommended.
Contents
Table of Contents
Introducing Time Series
Acquiring and Processing Time Series Data
Analyzing and Visualizing Time Series Data
Setting a Strong Baseline Forecast
Time Series Forecasting as Regression
Feature Engineering for Time Series Forecasting
Target Transformations for Time Series Forecasting
Forecasting Time Series with Machine Learning Models
Ensembling and Stacking
Global Forecasting Models
Introduction to Deep Learning
Building Blocks of Deep Learning for Time Series
Common Modeling Patterns for Time Series
Attention and Transformers for Time Series
Strategies for Global Deep Learning Forecasting Models
Specialized Deep Learning Architectures for Forecasting
Probabilistic Forecasting and More
Multi-Step Forecasting
Evaluating Forecast Errors—A Survey of Forecast Metrics
Evaluating Forecasts - Validation Strategies
