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Full Description
Shaping Tomorrow's World tells the crucial story of how futures studies developed in West Germany, Europe, the US and within global futures networks from the 1940s to the 1980s. It charts the emergence of different approaches and thought styles within the field ranging from Cold War defense intellectuals such as Herman Kahn to critical peace activists like Robert Jungk. Engaging with the challenges of the looming nuclear war, the changing phases of the Cold War, '1968', and the growing importance of both the Global South and environmentalism, this book argues that futures scholars actively contributed to these processes of change. This multiple award-winning study combines national and transnational perspectives to present a unique history of envisioning, forecasting, and shaping the future.
Contents
List of Illustrations
List of Abbreviations
Preface
Introduction
Chapter 1. Roots in Early Twentieth Century
From Prophecy to Prognostics
The Future as a Literary Genre
The Rise of "High Modernist" Political Planning
The Catalytic Role of World War II
Concluding Remarks
Chapter 2. Cold War Science
Big Science and Technological Cultures
RAND, Cybernetics, and Game Theory: Providing the Theories
Simulation Modelling, Scenario Writing, and Delphi: Developing Forecasting Techniques
Transatlantic Platforms and Cold War Spearheads: The Congress for Cultural Freedom and the Ford Foundation
French Connection: Ford, Planification and the Founding of Futuribles
Emerging Future Studies in State Socialism: Cold War Based Socialist Forecasting and Socialist Futurology
Concluding Remarks
Chapter 3. Conceptualizing Futures Studies: Key Figures and Thought Styles
Normative Style of Thought
Securing Freedom and Authority: Bertrand de Jouvenel Carl Friedrich von Weizsäcker and the Search for Securing Peace
Concluding Remarks on the Normative Style of Thought
Empirical and Positivistic Style of Thought
Social Forecasting and Social Technology: Daniel Bell and Olaf Helmer
Positivism and Technological Optimism: Herman Kahn and Karl Steinbuch
Critical and Emancipatory Style of Thought
Characteristics of the Critical-Emancipatory Style of Thought
Socialist Humanism: Ossip K. Flechtheim's Path to Futurology From "Blind" to "Seeing"
Progress: Robert Jungk
Imagining, Planning, Shaping Futures: Flechtheim's and Jungk's Changing Conceptions of Futures Studies
Concluding Remarks on the Critical and Emancipatory Thought Style
Chapter 4. Constructing Futurology? The Emerging Futures Field and the Public Sphere
Science and the Public Sphere
Futures Studies and the Changing Science-Media-Public Nexus
Concluding Remarks
Chapter 5. Conflicting Futures: West German Futures Studies Organizations in the 1960s
Peace Studies and Futures Studies: The Founding of the Max-Planck-Institute in Starnberg
Systems Analysis between Planning and Participation: The Studiengruppe für Systemforschung
Systems, Models, Learning: The Center Berlin for Futures Research (ZBZ)
Ideologized Futures in Conflict: The Gesellschaft für Zukunftsfragen (GfZ)
Concluding Remarks
Chapter 6. Bridging East and West: Mankind 2000 and the Founding of the World Future Studies Federation
Peace Movements and Futures Studies
On the Path to Oslo
Technological Optimism and a Spirit of Feasibility: The Oslo Congress in 1967 A Look Out Agency for Europe?
From High-Tech Visions to World Futures: The International Future Research Conference in Kyoto 1970
Cold War Détente Encounters in Bucharest and the Founding of the WFSF
Concluding Remarks
Chapter 7. Controlling the World's Future: The Early History of the Club of Rome
The OECD Nucleus of the Club
Aurelio Peccei, IIASA and the Founding of the Club of Rome
The Bellagio Conference
An Elitist Circle: The Club of Rome and its First "Project 1970"
Concluding Remarks
Chapter 8. The Environmental Turn in Futures Studies: The Debate about the Limits to Growth, 1972-73
An Environmental Revolution around 1970
The Limits to Growth Study, 1972
The Debate on the Limits to Growth study
Effects of the Debate for the Futures Field and Beyond
Concluding Remarks
Chapter 9. Glocalization and a Subjective Turn: Futures Studies in the 1970s
Human-Centered Futures: The 1973 Rome Conference of the WFSF
Shaping the Future from the Bottom-Up and Globally: Dubrovnik, Berlin and the Concept of Future Workshops
Modeling the World's Future: The Club of Rome and IIASA in mid 1970s
Global and Local Futures: Rethinking and Practicing Futures Studies in 1970s West Germany
Concluding Remarks
Chapter 10. Global Solidarity versus Economic Competitiveness: The Futures Field since the late 1970s
Closing Doors: West German Futures Studies in the late 1970s and 1980s
The WFSF between World Order and Utopia
An Economic Turn in Futures Studies?
Conclusion
Bibliography
Index
