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Full Description
The Myth of War in the Taiwan Strait proposes a new framework of the "Yizhou dilemma" to capture the conundrum faced by a hegemony (the U.S.), a rising power (Mainland China), and the weaker third entity (Taiwan) crucial to the rising power's ascendance. Taiyi Sun and Dennis Lu-Cheng Weng, drawing evidence from the assessments and perceptions of directly involved elites from Beijing, Taipei, and Washington, argue war is not imminent, yet action or inaction by each party could potentially lead to detrimental outcomes. For the rising power, overexpansion incurs significant costs, but restraint makes it unable to attain "major power status." Consequently, low-cost symbolic shows of force are more likely than a full invasion of the third entity. For the strategically vital yet relatively weaker entity, asserting autonomy and independence to put up a fight would risk escalating tension and trigger aggressive behaviors from the rising power. Yet, maintaining the status quo would allow the rising power to continue strengthening itself so that a coerced unification unfavorable to the weaker entity could become more probable. For the hegemony, leaving more looming challenges elsewhere unresolved could diminish the power of the hegemony, but getting involved leads to even more challenges.
Contents
Chapter 1. The Myth of War in the Taiwan Strait and the Yizhou Dilemma
Chapter 2. The Origin of the Taiwan Question and Where We Are Now
Chapter 3. Elite Survey Results from Beijing, Taipei, and Washington: Perceptions of War and Peace in the Taiwan Strait
Chapter 4. Elite Interviews and Focus Group Results from Beijing, Taipei, and Washington: Key Debates on War and Peace in the Taiwan Strait
Chapter 5. Do Decision Makers and the People Think Alike? The Perception Differences between the Elites and the Public
Chapter 6. Assessment by the Highest-Level Elites from Mainland China
Chapter 7. Assessment by the Highest-Level Elites from the Republic of China on Taiwan
Chapter 8. Assessment by the Highest-Level Elites from the U.S.
Chapter 9. The Yizhou Dilemma and the Prospects of the Taiwan Strait
