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After several decades of unprecedented growth that turned China into the world's second largest economy, today China is facing major economic challenges, exacerbated by rising tariffs imposed by its most important export market, the United States. How can we explain the extraordinary rise and sudden faltering of China's economic miracle?
Kent Deng takes a long-term view, charting the development of China's economy from the nineteenth century to the present day. He shows that the policies implemented during Mao's rule from the 1950s to the 1970s led to a growth cul-de-sac with major economic disincentives and mass poverty. This forced Mao's successor, Deng Xiaoping, to reform and open up China's economy with a view to unleashing the economic power of the market. The new model developed by Deng Xiaoping combined state-led import dependency with exports in order to catch up with the West, and success in achieving exports depended on a unique combination of cheap labour, cheap land and low environmental protection which, taken together, gave China an absolute advantage in the global market, enabling it to produce goods very cheaply and export them to Western countries where the costs were much higher. But Deng's economic model is now facing increasing resistance from those countries on which China has relied for its export growth. Since 2010, two doors have been closing on China: the door for goods heading for China (vital for China's modernization) and the door for goods coming from China (vital for paying for China's imports). This is likely to end China's hitherto uninterrupted 'import-export combo' loop. The 2025 tariff war between United States and China is only the most recent manifestation of this new state of affairs in the global economy.
Given the headwinds China now faces, and given that many low-income countries have now modelled themselves on China and begun to supply the world market with low-priced goods, China would need an economic miracle to bounce back to its pre-2010 growth trajectory.
Contents
Introduction
1. An Overview of China's Recent History
2. Methodology
3. Structure of this Book
Chapter 1. China's Openness and Economic Growth before 1950 - A Longue Durée Narrative
1. Laying out the Background: 'Open Era' on Whose Terms
2. State Capacity: Taxes and Silver Deadweight to the Economy
3. Secret of Qing Growth: Better Resource Base and Allocation in Favour of Farming
4. Unintended Consequences of the Ming and Qing Policies
5. China's Economic Status Prior to the Opium War
6. Economic Impact of the Opium War
7. China's Indigenous Growth Trajectory
Chapter 2. The Road to the PRC and Maoist Growth Traps and State Failure
1. Pre-Mao China as Land of 'Murphy's Law', 1850-1950
2. Rise of 'Militocrats' (or Stratocrats) and Maoism in the Making, 1850-1920
3. Mao's Career Choice and Strategy
4. Mao's Moral Economy and His Political Economy after 1930
5. Impact of Maoism on Performance of the Economy
6. Mao's Legacy Debated
7. Final Remarks
Chapter 3. Deng's Termination of Class Struggle and the Pursuit of Growth
1. Exogenous Party-state and Resistance from the Population
2. Deng's Personal Qualities: Key to Reforms
3. Top-down Reforms during the Vital Years, 1980-1984
4. Boom in Tertiary Education
5. Spontaneous Changes in Rural Institutions
6. Rural Industrial Enterprises and 'Urban Substitution Industrialisation'
7. Surge of the Urban Private Sector
8. End Results: Changes in Economic Performance
9. Evaluation of Deng's Reforms
10. Final Remarks
Chapter 4. State-Capacity and 'Getting Prices Wrong'
1. Institutional Determinism: State Capacity and Its Changes
2. State Capacity Riding on Reforms
3. 'Getting Prices Wrong' by the State and for the State
4. State Capacity's Externalities and Unintended Consequences
5. Final Remarks
Chapter 5. The 'China Model': Constraints and Unsustainability
1. Defining the Nature of the 'China Model'
2. From Unproductive Cheap Labour to an 'Absolute Advantage in Trade'
3. State-led 'Absolute Advantage in Trade' for Market Dominance
4. State-led 'Import-Export Combo'
5. The Limits and Unsustainability of the 'China Model'
6. The Covid-19 Shock: A World without China
7. The Fallacy of the 'Global Value Chain' and What China May Look Like by 2030
8. Final Remarks
