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Full Description
In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know-and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don't know. Primer on Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner that is consistent with the risk models of all communities of practice. This primer tackles the question, "what is risk analysis?" Distilling the common principles of the many risk tribes and dialects into serviceable definitions and narratives, it provides a foundation for the practice of risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all walks of life. Readers learn the language, models, and concepts of risk analysis and its three component tasks-risk management, assessment, and communication. Making a distinction between knowledge uncertainty and natural variability, the book also introduces a down-to-earth approach to decision making under uncertainty. Extensive examples illustrate the applicability of the risk analysis principles.The book's simple and straightforward style-based on the author's decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator-strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. It describes the principles of risk analysis in a manner that enables readers to better understand and use the models and practice of their individual fields, and to gain access to the rich and sophisticated professional literature on risk analysis.A companion volume, Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty, supplies the tools, techniques, and methodologies to help readers apply the principles of risk analysis-the "how to."Additional exercises, as well as a free student version of the Palisade Corporation DecisionTools (R) Suite software and files used in the preparation of this book are available for download.
Contents
The BasicsWhat is risk?What Is Risk Analysis? Why Do Risk Analysis? Who Does Risk Analysis? A Brief Historical Perspective On Risk Analysis Government Agencies Private Sector When Should We Do Risk Analysis? Organization of BookSummary and Look ForwardReferencesUncertainty Introduction Uncertainty from 75,000 feet The Uncertainty on Your Desk Knowledge Uncertainty or Natural Variability? Types of Uncertainty Quantity Uncertainty Sources of Uncertainty in Empirical Quantities Being Intentional About Uncertainty Summary and Look Forward References Risk Management Introduction Identifying Problems and Opportunities Problem RecognitionProblem Acceptance Problem Definition Risk Estimation Establish Risk Analysis Process Individual Risk Management Activities Risk Evaluation Principles for Establishing Acceptable and Tolerable Levels of Risk The DecisionRisk Control Formulating RMOsEvaluating RMOs Comparing RMOs Making a Decision Identifying Decision Outcomes Implementing the Decision Risk Monitoring Monitoring Evaluation and IterationRisk Management Models Summary and Look Ahead References Risk Assessment Introduction What Makes a Good Risk Assessment? Definitions Risk Assessment Activities Understand the Questions Identify the Source of the Risk Consequence Assessment Likelihood Assessment Risk Characterization Assess Effectiveness of RMOs Communicate Uncertainty Document the Process Risk Assessment Models Risk Assessment Methods Qualitative Risk Assessment Quantitative Risk Assessment Summary and Look Ahead References Risk Communication Introduction Definitions Internal Risk Communication Coordination Between Assessors and Managers Risk Communication Process Documenting the ProcessExternal Risk Communication Risk and Crisis CommunicationPublic InvolvementConflict ResolutionSummary and Look Forward ReferencesExamplesIntroductionQualitativeLevee Risk RangerPest RiskQuantitativeDredging Project Cost EstimateVibrio parahaemolyticus in OystersSummary and Look ForwardReferences Appendix A: The Language of Risk and ISO 31000IntroductionISO 31000Enterprise Risk ManagementObservationsReferencesIndex
