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Full Description
In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know-and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don't know. Principles of Risk Analysis: Decision Making Under Uncertainty lays out the tasks of risk analysis in a straightforward, conceptual manner that is consistent with the risk models of all communities of practice. It answers the questions "what is risk analysis?" and "how do I do this?"Distilling the common principles of the many risk tribes and dialects into serviceable definitions and narratives, the book provides a foundation for the practice of risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty for professionals from all walks of life. In the first part of the book, readers learn the language, models, and concepts of risk analysis and its three component tasks-risk management, assessment, and communication. The second part of the book supplies the tools, techniques, and methodologies to help readers apply the principles. From problem identification and brainstorming to model building and choosing a probability distribution, the author walks readers through the how-to of risk assessment. Addressing the critical task of risk communication, he explains how to present the results of assessments and how to develop effective messages.The book's simple and straightforward style-based on the author's decades of experience as a risk analyst, trainer, and educator-strips away the mysterious aura that often accompanies risk analysis. It describes the principles in a manner that empowers readers to begin the practice of risk analysis, to better understand and use the models and practice of their individual fields, and to gain access to the rich and sophisticated professional literature on risk analysis.Additional exercises as well as a free student version of the Palisade Corporation DecisionTools (R) Suite software and files used in the preparation of this book are available for download.
Contents
The BasicsWhat is Risk?What Is Risk Analysis? Why Do Risk Analysis? Who Does Risk Analysis? When Should We Do Risk Analysis? Organization of BookUncertainty Uncertainty from 75,000 Feet The Uncertainty on Your Desk Being Intentional About Uncertainty Risk Management Identifying Problems and Opportunities Risk Estimation Risk Evaluation Risk Control Risk Monitoring Risk Management Models Risk Assessment What Makes a Good Risk Assessment? Definitions Risk Assessment Activities Risk Assessment Models Risk Assessment Methods Risk Communication Definitions Internal Risk Communication External Risk Communication Problem Identification for Risk ManagementWhat's a Problem? What's an Opportunity?Becoming Aware of Problems and OpportunitiesProblem and Opportunity Identification TechniquesThe P&O StatementBrainstormingWhat Can You Brainstorm?BackgroundAvoid Problems in Your ProcessA Few Good Techniques3x YeahGroup Evaluations with Colored DotsDo You Need a Facilitator?AddendumOpportunity Costs and Trade-OffsEconomics for Risk ManagersEconomics and Decision MakingEconomic Basis for Interactions among PeoplePrinciples of the Economy as a WholeMaking Trade-OffsEconomic AnalysisQualitative Risk AssessmentRisk = Probability x ConsequenceA Generic ProcessMore or Less RiskRisk NarrativesEvidence MapsOrdering TechniquesThe Risk MatrixQualitative Risk Assessment ModelsMCDAA Semiquantitative Risk Assessment ExampleThe Art and Practice of Risk Assessment ModelingTypes of ModelsA Model-Building ProcessSimulation ModelsRequired Skill SetsProbability ReviewTwo Schools of ThoughtProbability EssentialsHow Do We Get Probabilities?Working with ProbabilitiesWhy You Need to Know ThisChoosing a Probability DistributionGraphical ReviewStrategy for Selecting a Probability DistributionExample 1Example 2A Dozen Useful Probability Distributions for Risk AssessorsProbability ElicitationProbability WordsSubjective ProbabilityWhen to Do an ElicitationMaking Judgments under UncertaintyResponding to HeuristicsThe Elicitation ProtocolCalibrationMultiple ExpertsMonte Carlo ProcessBackgroundA Two-Step ProcessHow Many Iterations?Sampling MethodAn IllustrationProbabilistic Scenario AnalysisCommon ScenariosTypes of Scenario AnalysisScenario ComparisonsTools for Constructing ScenariosAdding Probability to the ScenariosAn ExampleSensitivity AnalysisQualitative Sensitivity AnalysisQuantitative Sensitivity AnalysisThe PointPresenting and Using Assessment ResultsUnderstand Your Assessment Output Data Before You Explain ItExamine the QuantitiesExamine the ProbabilitiesExamine RelationshipsAnswer the QuestionsVisualization of DataDecision Making under UncertaintyMessage DevelopmentCommunication ModelsThe Need for Message Strategies for Risk CommunicationCrisis CommunicationMessage MappingImpediments to Risk CommunicationDeveloping Risk Communication MessagesAppendix A: The Language of Risk and ISO 31000ISO 31000Enterprise Risk ManagementObservationsAppendix B: Using Palisade's Decision Tools SuiteTopRank@RISKPrecisionTreeIndex All chapters include an introduction, summary, and references.
