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Full Description
Strategies for improving resilience, incorporating complexity theory, risk analysis, and systems thinking with a rigorous mathematical treatment
The Science of Resilience delves into the fascinating field of resilience science, exploring how various systems, ranging from physical infrastructure to social networks, can withstand and recover from disruptions. This interdisciplinary subject combines principles from complexity theory, risk analysis, and systems thinking to understand and mitigate the impacts of events like natural disasters, cyber-attacks, and economic crises. By using mathematical models and real-world examples, the book provides practical tools and strategies for designing resilient systems that can adapt and thrive in the face of uncertainty.
Written by a highly qualified author with significant experience in the field, this book:
Covers synchronization, bottleneck analysis, epidemic modeling, social network disinformation and how to counter it, and restructuring a system to increase resilience
Explains phase change and shows how to apply it to general complex systems
Integrates rigorous mathematical models with real-world applications through mini case studies and hypothetical examples covering physical, economic, and social systems
Provides tools and strategies to design resilient systems, analyze potential risks, and plain for resilience
Addressing an important gap in risk and resilience literature, this book offers valuable insights for engineering and systems design professionals, complexity science and risk analysis researchers, and graduate students in related fields, as well as anyone interested in the science of resilience.
Contents
Preface ix
1 Sandpiles, Long Tails, and Complex Catastrophes 1
The Many Faces of Resilience 4
Sandpile as Metaphor 6
Blocks and Springs 12
Computing Exceedance Probability 14
Two Versions of Exceedance 16
Comments 20
References 22
2 Wildfires, Self-Organization, and Phase Change 23
California Wildfires 24
Percolated Forests 27
Why Does This Occur? 30
Time Resilience 31
Herd Immunity 33
Gause's Emergent Forest 33
Punctuated Equilibrium 37
Comments 39
References 40
3 Nuclear Disaster, Fault Trees, and the Kill Chain 41
PRA and Fault Trees 45
The Hundred-Year Flood 47
Modeling Threats 48
Modeling TMI-2 Risk 49
Minimization of Fault Tree Risk 51
Maximizing Threat - The Rational Adversary 55
Redundant TMI-2 56
Cyber Kill Chain 56
Comments 59
4 Avalanches, Complex Network, and the Day Power Went Out 61
What Happened on August 14th 62
Network Basics 64
Spectral Radius 68
Network Avalanches 72
Bottlenecks and Resilient Walks 78
Blocking Node Resilience 81
Networks That Sync 82
Comments 85
References 86
5 Surges, Overloads, and the Transformer Matrix 87
The Transformer Matrix 89
Surges and N-1 Testing 91
Surges and Overloading 95
Increasing Capacity and the Braess Paradox 97
Estimating Vulnerability, V 100
Comments 102
6 Emergence, Optimization, and the Competitive Exclusion Principle 103
Efficient Hubs 104
Optimizing Links 106
Maximizing Clusters 110
Dynamic State Space 115
Competitive Exclusion Principle is Degree-Emergence 118
Resilient Sync Networks Cooperate 120
A Theory of Heartbeat 120
Comments 123
References 124
7 Population Resilience, Biological Avalanches, and the COVID-19
Pandemic 125
Risk and Resilience 130
Epidemics as Avalanches 132
A Multi-Factor Model 132
Comments 141
References 142
8 Flashmob Avalanches, Disinformation, and Herd Mentality 143
A Digital Flashmob 145
Resilience: Applying Control Theory to Disinformation 151
Controlling Chaos 153
Comments 155
Reference 156
9 Enrichment, Extinction, and the Tragedy of the Commons 157
Too Much Money 159
Predator and Prey 161
Plausible Extinction Events 166
Resilience of Predator-Prey Systems 167
Minsky Moments 169
Comments 173
References 174
10 Resilient Cyber Security and Fault Tree Resilience 177
Correlation With Uptick in Physical Incidents 178
Detecting Malware With YARA Patterns 180
Fault Tree Resilience 181
An Industrial Control System 183
Increasing Resilience via Blocking Nodes 187
Tracing Fault Tree Paths Along Avalanches 187
Increasing Security by Investing in Vulnerability Reduction 189
Comments 190
Reference 191
11 Distributed Resilience, Restructuring, and the Crash of 2008 193
Too Connected to Fail 196
Restructuring by Node Splitting 199
Bushy versus Branchy Restructuring 200
Improving Flow Resilience 202
The Great Texas Freeze 204
Comments 206
Index 000
