Full Description
This title was first published in 2000: This text offers a comprehensive collection of selected papers from the 24th Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET) conference. Areas selected include leading indicators and turning points, classifications of business cycles, survey data and policy decisions, attitudes and behaviour of firms, and economic forecasting. The text aims to be of interest to all those concerned with the use of business and consumer surveys in a global context.
Contents
List of Contributors, Preface, Introduction, PART I. LEADING INDICATORS AND TURNING POINTS, 1. On the Use of Markov Switching Models Applied to Business Survey Data for the Prediction of Turning Points, 2. The Lead Profile and other Non-parametric Tools to Evaluate Survey Series as Leading Indicators, 3. Prediction of Business Cycle Turning Points: Using Two Types of Recession Probability Models for Japan, 4. New Composite Coincident and Leading Indexes for Poland, PART II. CLASSIFICATION OF BUSINESS CYCLES, 5. Multivariate Analysis for the Measurement of Economic Growth Cycles, 6. Quantitative and Qualitative Leading Indicators: Evaluating Performance in Long and Average Expansions, 7. The Use of Survey Data in Economic Barometers for Poland, PART III. SURVEY DATA AND POLICY DECISIONS, 8. Mobilization of Household Savings: Background for Policy Recommendations, 9. Employment Expectations in the European Union: An Empirical Assessment Based on Qualitative Survey Data, 10. Household Incomes, Professional Status and Inflation in Italy in the 1990s: Evidence from the ISAE Consumer Survey, 11. The Predictability of Currency Crises: The Case of Turkey, 12. National Identity and Economic Expectations Determining Attitude towards the Euro, 13. The Indicator Monitoring Taiwan's Business Conditions, PART IV. ATTITUDES AND BEHAVIOUR OF FIRMS, 14. Menu Costs, Firm Size and Price Rigidity: Evidence from Business Survey Data, 15. What Determines Firm Investment Intentions? Micro and Macro Analyses using Business Survey Data, 16. Irreversibility and Uncertainty: An Empirical Analysis on Italian Firms' Investment Decisions, 17. Lumpy and Irreversible Investment in Italy: An Empirical Test Based on Investment Survey Data, 18. Investment Surveys Analysing Innovations in Hungary, 19. Human Capital and Growth, 20. Role of Firm-Specific Factors and Lending Relationships in Availability of Bank Credit: Firm-Level Evidence from Finnish Survey Data, 21. Formation of Production Plans and Demand Expectations of Russian Industrial Enterprises in the Course of Market Reforms, PART V. CAPACITY UTILISATION, 22. The Degree of Utilisation of Production Capacity in the Belgian Manufacturing Industry, 23. Investment Forecast and Capacity Utilisation: A Panel Data Analysis, 24. Capacities and Capacity Utilisation from the Ifo Business Survey - Knowledge and Background, 25. A Measurement of the Capacity Utilization Rate of the Mexican Firms in the Manufacturing Sector, PART VI. STOCKS AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE, 26. Stocks and the Business Cycle: An Initial Examination of Business Opinion Survey Data, 27. Model for the Cyclical Trend in Stocks in Belgium, PART VII. SURVEY DATA AND ECONOMIC FORECASTS, 28. Economic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting with Qualitative Data from the Economic Survey International (ESI), 29. The Usefulness of Ifo Business Survey Results for Forecasting the German Share Price Index, 30. Leading Indicators for the South African Building Industry: The Effect of the Reconstruction and Development Programme, 31. The Predictive Power of Finnish Business Survey among Industrial Sectors, CIRET
